Punca Sebenar 'Kekalutan' Pakatan Rakyat... Dan Bahaya Kepada BN...

Perpecahan yang kelihatan menjadi-jadi antara anggota Pakatan Pembangkang kini sedang kuat di'analisa' berpropaganda oleh BN. Amnya saya setuju yang pertelingkahan pelbagai yang berlaku ini berpunca dari perlawanan prinsip dan dasar antara ahli Pakatan. Namun, saya rasa terlalu awal untuk menyatakan perpecahan berikut bakal memastikan masa depan BN sebagai parti pemerintah, apatah lagi kembalinya 2/3 Parlimen dan 5+1 negeri secara mutlak kepadanya.

Ketiga-tiga ahli Pakatan mempunyai matlamat berbeza dan tiada kesatuan tujuan selain benci terhadap BN; DAP mahukan Malaysian-Malaysia, PAS memperjuangkan 'Negara Islam' manakala PKR mahukan keadilan untuk DS Anwar Ibrahim, yakni menjadikan beliau Perdana Menteri. Ini lain dengan dasar kesatu-paduan BN yang dari pasca tahun 1969 berlandaskan perlunya keamanan di antara kaum di Malaysia.

Namun, kalau dilihat dari segi keputusan PRU-12 yang lepas, ketidak-samaan dasar bukanlah menjadi faktor utama kemenangan Pakatan Pembangkang di 5+1 dan kebanyakan kerusi Parlimen. Pada saya, 2 punca pokok kemenangan tersebut adalah:

1. Kebencian rakyat terhadap kepimpinan, dasar dan tindak-tanduk kerajaan Pak Lah yang menyebabkan BN amnya ditolak di banyak tepi undi. Malah kalau dilihat, di banyak lokasi, BN kalah kerana pengundi BN enggan keluar mengundi. Kumpulan tidak mengundi inilah yang membawa risiko terbesar untuk BN, sekiranya mereka bukan sahaja tidak mengundi pada PRU-13, tetapi langsung menyokong parti lawan!


2. Kejayaan DS Anwar Ibrahim menyatu-padukan PAS, DAP dan PKR sepanjang tempoh pilihanraya, justeru itu menubuhkan kerajaan-kerajaan negeri dari kalangan Pakatan Pembangkang sahaja. DS Anwar sebenarnya adalah satu-satunya pemimpin Pakatan yang ahli dalam politik persatuan antara parti ini, hasil latihan Tun Dr M sewaktu beliau dalam persediaan mengambil kedudukan Presiden UMNO sekaligus Ketua Barisan Nasional.

Dari segi peranan DS Anwar sebagai 'gam' yang mencantumkan parti-parti Pakatan supaya terduduk bersekongkong, bersuara senada, berpesta seirama, ia telah dibuktikan berkali-kali. Contoh yang terkini adalah apabila beliau kelihatan berjaya, melalui hubungan 'Erdogan'-nya, mematikan usaha PAS untuk bermuafakat dengan UMNO untuk perpaduan ummah Melayu.

Oleh itu, kita tidak sepatutnya hairan yang 'gam' antara parti-parti Pakatan pada masa ini lekang sedikit. Ini kerana 'gam' tersebut, DS Anwar, tengah sibuk dengan kes sodomi beliau terhadap bekas pegawai khasnya Saiful! Kerana beliau kini kesibukan memantau pengendalian kes tersebut, maka tak hairanlah kita melihat DS Anwar kurang mampu meleraikan keruncingan terkini antara 'teman-teman' Pakatannya, sehinggakan mesyuarat kepemimpinan pun ditangguhkan!

Namun, BN harus waspada! Pada masa ini, perpecahan menjadi-jadi kerana ketiadaan DS Anwar sebagi penyatu Pakatan dan ini adalah keadaan yang berkemungkinan SEMENTARA sahaja. DS Anwar mungkin selamat dari tuduhan Saiful, tetapi walaupun sekiranya beliau didapati bersalah dan dipenjarakan semula, masih ada kemungkinan timbulnya 'gam' baru bagi menggantikan DS Anwar dari kalangan pemimpin Pakatan... 'gam' yang nescaya lebih berkesan!

Sebenarnya, BN tidak harus menghiraukan langsung bersatu tidaknya Pakatan Pembangkang kerana pada dasarnya, kita bukan kalah kerana PAS, DAP dan PKR menarik bebenar kepada rakyat, baik dalam Pakatan mahupun dengan sendiri. Malah, kekalahan BN berlaku sebelum Pakatan Pembangkang diisytiharkan secara 'rasmi'nya. Kalahnya BN pada dasarnya kerana isu 1 di atas; kita ditolak hasil kebencian rakyat terhadap kepimpinan, dasar dan tindak-tanduk Pak Lah.

BN seharusnya terus meningkatkan usaha mengembalikan kepercayaan rakyat, baik menerusi dasar dan perkhidmatan mantap mahupun dengan meneruskan pembersihan parti-parti yakni dengan pembuangan anasir-anasir yang dibenci orang kebanyakan. Tugas berat juga harus dipikul oleh bahagian Penerangan setiap komponen BN, yang juga harus celik media di alam kepelbagaian sumber maklumat, terutama bagi menarik pengundi muda. Futsal dah tak cukup oi!

BN juga harus waspada yang kita tidak terus 'syok sendiri', bukan sahaja dengan apa dilihat sebagai kejayaan di dalam parti, tetapi juga anggapan perpecahan lawan di luar. Yang penting adalah pendapat rakyat dan isi hati pengundi terhadap BN... kerana merekalah yang bakal menentukan nasib pemimpin menjelang PRU-13...

September 16, Here We Come! Clearly It's The Economy, Silly!

Much as expected, and despite an increasing number of Malays, even among the voters in his constituency (30+% now!), believing Anwar did 'do it' to Saiful, the man still won in Permatang Pauh with an increased majority! One can't really blame demographics too much as the electoral roll would be the same, and the win is so comprehensive, it is unlikely the trends between groups (race, age, etc) would shift much either.

To put it plainly, even as more people believe Anwar is a Homosexual Rapist, and more are discomfited with PKR's increasing politics of fear, and more begin to question the giving away their constitutional rights as Malays and Muslims, THEY STILL DON'T WANT PAK LAH AS PM!

MALAYSIANS WOULD RATHER HAVE A CORRUPT, TRAITOROUS, VIOLENCE INCITING RAPIST AS PM RATHER THAN PAK LAH!

So Pak Lah, even the people of your home state has again demostrated that they still hate you... actually, they now hate you even more than in March when they gave Penang to DAP and even voted against your relative Dato Noraesah from winning one of the safest UMNO MP seats in the country, Balik Pulau!

So Pak Lah, are you going to declare "KITA MENANG!" again now? Is it possible that you could try to do something so silly yet again? We are waiting for your response to the whole debacle, which true to form, you and your cohorts will surely blame Najib for.

So Pak Lah, when was it again you said you were leaving? 2010? Sudah Lah Pak Lah... better leave now Lah. The people didn't care that Anwar could be a sodomite. They were going to choose Anwar because anyone could manage the economy better than Pak Lah... even the man who failed in 1998! People are willing to give Anwar another chance at the economy rather than have it mucked up some more by Lah-ism... the art of indecisively making the wrong decisions!

I still think 16 September is a pipe dream for Anwar. But we can't wait till 2010 for Pak Lah to go, let alone for an alternative to take over in 2013! Berundur Lah...

"Sayang Lah, Boleh Blah", "Takut Lah, Boleh Blah" atau Layak Digelar Majlis Tertinggi UMNO?

Pak Lah dalam bahaya. Terlalu banyak usahanya setakat ini untuk menetapkan kuasa dan kedudukan beliau sebagai Presiden UMNO merangkap PM telah gagal.

Dari kedudukan yang cukup kuat dahulunya, kini MB Johor kekal di tempatnya, mahupun usaha menggantikannya diatur Tingkat 4 sejak sebelum pilihanraya lagi. MB Terengganu kini terlepas ke pemimpin berhaluan lain. Malah usahanya 'membeli' kembali sokongan bekas MB Perlis juga mencapai kebuntuan.

Jika dicongak sekali dengan sejumlah Ketua Bahagian UMNO yang sudah pun sedia marah kepada Pak Lah akibat 'tak lekat' sebagai calon bersama dengan pemimpin bahagian yang menganggap beliau serta KJ sebab kekalahan besar UMNO di 5+1 negeri, KuLi pasti sudah ada lebih dari 57 bahagian yang diperlukan untuk mencalonkan diri sebagai Presiden UMNO!

Malah lebih memalukan lagi, ada kemungkinan sokongan Pak Lah begitu merudum hingga beliau sendiri tidak akan dapat cukup pencalonan untuk mempertahankan kedudukannya sebagai Presiden UMNO! Terlalu ramai Ketua Penerangan Negeri dan MB UMNO, seperti Tajol Rosli, Adnan Yaakob dan Ali Rustam yang mempunyai kekuatan serta kewibawaan untuk mengubah haluan menurut kepimpinan KuLi, atau mana-mana pemimpin lain selain Pak Lah.

Sampaikan MB yang dikatakan paling rapat dengan Pak Lah, Mohamad Hasan, sudah pun dengan cekal mengesyorkan yang pemilihan UMNO harus diadakan.

Inilah sebabnya pemilihan UMNO mahu ditangguhkan. Pak Lah, setelah merasa kekalahan PRU-12, kini sudah semakin hilang keyakinan pada dirinya sendiri dan ingin berlindung dari pemilihan. Pemilihan tersebut bakal memberi suara kepada kebencian akar-umbi UMNO yang semakin meluap terhadap beliau dan kuncu-kuncunya.

Lihatlah sahaja siapa yang memberi keterangan tentang penangguhan pemilihan UMNO - Mat Taib, yang ternyata masih terhutang budi atas nyawa politik baru yang ditiupkan ke dalamnya oleh Pak Lah. Kenapa bukan Tengku Adnan, Setiausaha Agung UMNO yang membawa wadah ini? Kerana Tengku Adnan lebih sayangkan UMNO dari mana-mana pemimpinnya...

Ya lah, Ku Nan kan orang Tun Dr M, memang lazimnya begitu. Setiausaha Agung zaman Tun Dr M dulu semua fanatik UMNO, termasuklah Sabaruddin Chik, Mohamad Rahmat dan Sanusi Junid. Sudah tentu sebagai bekas Setiausaha Kerja UMNO zaman Tun Dr M, Tengku Adnan juga lebih berfanatikkan parti UMNO dari pemimpinnya, mahupun Tun Dr M sendiri! Inikan pula Pak Lah...

Mat Taib menggambarkan kalau ada pemilihan mungkin akan menimbulkan perpecahan dalam UMNO. Perpecahan apa ni? Kalau ada pemilihan, sudah tentu Pak Lah kalah! Bubuhlah siapa pun jadi pencabar Pak Lah, walau seputik bunga orkid sekalipun, pasti kalah punya Pak Lah! Jadi kalau nak berpecah pun UMNO, mesti kerana Pak Lah bakal merajuk meninggalkan UMNO.

Tapi ada ka cukup orang yang nak ikut Pak Lah keluar bila kalah sehingga timbul perpecahan? Silap-silap, anak menantu dia pun tak ikut dia keluar! Mengarutlah kata-kata Mat Taib yang pemilihan akan menyebabkan perpecahan UMNO.

Makanya, Pak Lah dan kuncu-kuncunya ingin menunda pemilihan UMNO. Pendek kata, nak sembunyi di tepi kain Majlis Tertinggi UMNO lah tu! Inilah peluang ahli-ahli Majlis Tertinggi untuk menunjukkan kewibawaan mereka. Adakah mereka akan membuktikan sayang mereka kepada Pak Lah, atau sayang mereka kepada UMNO, agama, bangsa dan negara?

Senang macam ni lah. Kalau ada spy-spy mana-mana dalam mesyuarat Majlis Tertinggi tu nanti, laporkanlah siapa yang mengundi menyokong penundaan pemilihan. Yang berbuat demikian ada sudah mula melabelkan "Sayang Lah, Boleh Blah". Yang ini bakal kalah pada pemilihan kemudian. Kalau diumumkan persetujuan sebulat suara pun menarik, semua nanti tertukar!

Janganlah ada nanti ahli Majlis Tertinggi yang kata mereka megundi menyokong penundaan tetapi sebenarnya menentang. Yang ini dayus namanya, dan seeloknya berundur sahaja dari Majlis Tertinggi, atau "Takut Lah, Boleh Blah".

Yang kita ingin adalah yang lantang menidakkan usaha kecut Pak Lah dan Mat Taib ini. Yang berani dan berwibawa macam ini lah silap-silap kita angkat jadi Naib Presiden atau lebih tinggi lagi!

Terpulanglah kepada ahli-ahli Majlis Tertinggi sekarang. Adakah mereka "Sayang Lah, Boleh Blah", "Takut Lah, Boleh Blah" atau calon kepimpinan tertinggi dihari muka? Yang penting UMNO... bukan Lah...

No DEB, No Vernacular Schools?

The topic chosen here is not to provoke, but rather to remind people what the so called 'social contract' was so many years ago. In the 'ashes' of 13 May 1969, three concerns were raised which resulted in separate outcomes:

1. The Malays were convinced that the racial riots were the result of economic activities, and affluence, of Malaysians in 1969 still being determined by the racial segregation of colonial times, at least for the majority; i.e. Malays were farmers, Chinese were businessmen and Indians were estate workers. Malays pushed for the DEB to address the issue so that "Malaysians are no longer racially segregated by economic activity or affluence".
2. In the meantime, the two major minorities, the Chinese and Indians, were fighting for the retention of their identities. Their leaders feared a Malay push for national unity at the expense of their racial and cultural identity, such as was happening in Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines. They hence insisted on the protection and continued support of vernacular schools side-by-side with mainstream education.
3. The desires of East Malaysia (Sabah and Sarawak) continued to be protection of their autonomy, with the Bumiputra hence augmenting this with themselves opting into the DEB. Their negotiating position was stronger though as they did not suffer racial riots.

The fight of the major components of BN on the material side have thus been, the advancement of DEB goals for UMNO, the growth of Chinese education for MCA, the protection of a Hindu-centric culture by the MIC (which ironically resulted in them not getting much from the deal from the outset, despite the fact that DEB, on paper, also had benefits where Indians qualify ahead of Malays!) and protection of autonomous rights for the East Malaysian parties.

Gerakan and PPP were funny BN partners in that they were the only parties shouting for a Malaysian Malaysia then and was happy to endorse this agreement for the long term aspiration. They continue to do so to this day whilst becoming increasingly mono-racial themselves.

Post PRU-12, people are running around saying DEB is no longer relevant. I disagree. In fact, I think most Malays still want the bulk of DEB and certainly at most they wish the implementation to be reformed, especially around contracts. Most Malays still want MRSMs and Boarding Schools, scholarships, low cost or discounted housing, etc to remain. I am convinced that DEB is being scape-goated by the Lah-ist regime for the election loss to keep Pak Lah in power.

However, no meaningful debate on the removal of DEB can take place before reverting back to the original social contract. So, will the Chinese and Indians be willing to sacrifice their right to have vernacular schools to get rid of DEB? There are also many reasons for abolishing them. They are, variously:

1. Racial in nature,
2. Mainly exclusive, with such clear advantage given to Chinese and Indians due to their mother-tongue (ya ya, some Malay kids go to, but we have some Chinese in MRSM and Indians with JPA scholarships too!)
3. Draws good resources away from the standard Malay-medium schools, hence contributes to the reduction in overall quality of Malaysian education through structurally unequal distribution of resources
4. Polarising the nation by segregating minority races away from a mixed environment, and also resulting in a Malay-centric environment being created in Malay-medium school
5. Disrupts efforts to foster national unity through use of a single national language, Bahasa Malaysia, and a unified education system

So, no DEB, no vernacular schools? Sorry if I've upset anyone, I didn't open this door... was it the opposition? Pak Lah?

By the way you guys in East Malaysia, you don't go scot free. You jump to PKR (who wishes to 'modify' DEB... abolish-lah tu...), you open the door to East Malaysia losing its autonomy as per the social contract...

But, to re-emphasise... no DEB, no vernacular schools?

Benarkah Sudah Berakhir Riwayat Politik Khairy?

Sudah pun dikemukakan petanda kekalnya pengaruh Khairy dari analisa Pak Lah akan sebab kekalahan BN. Pak Lah memberi gambaran ini kerana golongan muda Melayu menolak DEB/DPB, apabila sebenarnya Khairy dan pemesong DEB/DPB lain yang ditolak; lagi pun sudah lama disyaki Khairylah hipokrit pembenci serta musuh dalam selimut DEB/DPB. Di sini ingin diajukan sedikit 'bukti' kekalnya Khairy sebagai pengemudi pentadbiran Pak Lah berdasarkan susunan kabinet.

Melihat prestasi buruk BN pada PRU-12 dan berdasarkan desakan lantang menggesa perletakan jawatan beliau, Pak Lah beraksi dengan begitu licik sekali. Sudah kembali ahli politik yang berjaya hidup begitu lama dalam UMNO walaupun dikelilingi musuh yang berkuku-taring lebih tajam. Malang sekali yang kepintaran tersebut agak kurang dalam menangani pentadbiran negara, mahupun menguruskan pilihanraya umum, tetapi di dalam UMNO, Pak Lah tetap gagah.

Setelah menerima maklumat jelas bahawa perlindungan dan kuasa tidak rasmi yang dikurniakan beliau kepada Khairy merupakan antara tunas kekalahan BN, Pak Lah mengambil kesempatan terdekat untuk:

1. Mengelak dari melantik Khairy ke jawatan kabinet.
2. Membenarkan propaganda menular yang nyawa politik Khairy sudah hampir hilang di media perdana serta halaman web pro-kerajaan seperti Malaysian Insider.
3. Membenarkan Pemuda UMNO memutuskan supaya Mukhriz Mahathir tidak dikenakan hukuman disiplin atas tindakan beliau menulis surat memohon perletakan jawatan Pak Lah sendiri.

Ini menunjukan seolah-olah Khairy bukan faktor dalam pentadbiran kerajaannya sekarang. Tambah pula:

1. Menteri yang kurang popular seperti Rafidah Aziz dan Radzi Sheikh Ahmad digugurkan.
2. General-general setia Pak Lah seperti Noh Omar diberi pangkat menteri sebagai persediaan perhimpunan agung UMNO.
3. Panglima-panglima pemimpin lain seperti Shabery Cheek diberikan kedudukan menteri dalam usaha menarik sokongan mereka.
4. Panglima-panglima yang sudah pasti tidak akan dapat ditarik kesetiaan kepada Pak Lah, seperti Tengku Adnan dan Jamaluddin Jarjis telah digugurkan, walaupun prestasi mereka yang lepas boleh tahan juga.
5. Pemimpin UMNO yang sering lantang mengkritik dari luar seperti Shahrir Samad dan Zaid Ibrahim pula cuba didiamkan dengan kedudukan baru.
6. Dibawa masuk juga sepahi upahan Muhamad Muhamad Taib sebagai menteri yang terjamin setia kerana kembalinya ke tampuk kuasa atas jasa Pak Lah.

Pemilihan kabinet Pak Lah tepat dengan tujuan mempertahankan kedudukan beliau dalam UMNO. Namun, Pak Lah mungkin terlalu sayangkan Khairy hingga tidak upaya beliau menidakkan pengaruh Khairy sama sekali. Contohnya:

1. Wan Ahmad Farid, teman setia Khairy yang melicinkan pengagihan projek di Terengganu suatu masa dahulu kini dilantik menjadi Timbalan Menteri.
2. Azalina, rakan sejawat Khairy semasa beliau menjadi pengacara TV dahulu, menonjol sebagai satu-satunya wakil Wanita UMNO di kabinet. Adakah ini petanda beliau bakal merampas kuasa kepimpinan wanita kelak? Khairy masih terhutang budi kepada Azalina yang lebih berhak menjadi wakil rakyat di Rembau, kampung asal-usul bapanya.

Perlantikan kabinet menunjukkan Pak Lah, dalam usaha mempertahankan hidup politiknya, sedia mengenepikan sedikit Khairy. Namun pengaruh Khairy terlihat kekal walaupun hanya ala-kadar. Mungkin perlantikan pada peringkat agensi-agensi kelak akan menonjolkan lagi tahap pengaruh Khairy pasca PRU-12; benarkah sudah dikekang, atau hanya sekadar wayang kulit sahaja beliau diketepikan dari kabinet.

Initial Feedback On The New Cabinet... Updated

At a glance one may be forgiven for being glad that this is a Khairy free cabinet. If you're thinking this... think again! Some hints of his influences are seen below. Nevertheless, it is clear that Pak lah has set up this cabinet for one purpose... to retain his power as PM via the UMNO Presidency. (Which is actually different from keeping UMNO and BN in power!)

Rocky asked some pertinent questions on why some people are on and are off the cabinet here rocky's bru: The new Cabinet.

Why was Rafidah droped? I update this with a thought that I picked up off a commentor. Could it be that Rafidah was dropped to make it easier for the US to conclude an FTA with us? We know that Muhyiddin, whilst an UMNO stalwart, doesn't really have the background and nous to as effectively lead Malaysia in the negotiations. Muhyiddin also demonstrated his willingness to compromise in the past with the land deal he agreed with Singapore when he was Johor MB. So, is the hidden reason to allow the USFTA to be ratified? Muhyiddin will need help here!

On the political side, Rafidah being dropped allows Azalina to more easily challenge her . As Azalina is increasingly seen as a Pak Lah and Khairy ally, what with her sacrificing her familial right to be the MP of Rembau to Khairy and her minions' activities on the web. Rafidah needs to make amends with Tun Dr M properly to stand a chance. Alternatively, Rafidah can choose to back another Wanita heavyweight, like say Noraesah (who is generally acceptable to all factions), to block Azalina. Azalina of course was Khairy's co-anchor on TV once.

A tangential view of why Rafidah was dropped would be that it is to appease Tun Dr M, who probably is still a little upset with Rafidah for her role in the AP scandal and the attack on Proton. Enough about Rafidah.

Why was JJ dropped? Because Pak Lah cannot risk 2 Najib allies in the Cabinet who are political warlords that can also deliver at their ministries. Zahid Hamidi, whilst tentatively also an Anwarista and publicly behind Pak Lah, was brought into the mainstream by Najib and was returned to public leadership following his conversion to Tun Dr M pre-1999 elections. Zahid is still the best candidate to grab MAYC from the clutches of Syed Hamid, currently a firm, though weak, Lah-ist ally.

Why Muhammad Taib? 2 reasons probably. Khairy in his snot-nosed political infancy is probably still enamoured by Muhammad Taib's skill at leading by-elections. This despite 'Mike Tyson's' clear weakness as UMNO Information Chief on the big stage of PRU-12. Pak Lah also needs a guaranteed ally (one he has revived from the political graveyard) to balance the cabinet that he has risked...

The cabinet is still potentially hostile. Shabery Cheek was raised by KuLi so may well be another enemy within, but he cannot be ignored what with the others Pak Lah have dropped. Liow Tiong Lai dan Ong Tee Keat's entry mark the pre-emminence of the Lim Ah Lek faction in MCA, a group that is more traditional and less amenable to shananigans vs Ong Ka Ting's faction, now represented by that less popular brother of his, Ong Ka Chuan.

Curious to see Wan Ahmad Farid as Deputy Home Affairs and Internal Security Minister. This is Khairy's close chum right? The one who used to be in Terengganu? Or have I got the wrong guy. He'll probably be puppet-mastering Syed Hamid Albar in the ministry... weak... weak!

I have a quick observation also to make about the MIC members of cabinet. So, Samy has put up his man S Subramaniam for Minister. Has to be Samy's man as he's Sec-Gen of MIC. This sets up the battle for the MIC Presidency nicely then against the young turk Devamany who has a Deputy Minister post! This assumes of course that Samy is no longer interested? Palanievel? The other Subra?

So, does this cabinet line-up change my opinion that Pak Lah has to go for the sake of the party and the nation? No. Does the cabinet line-up re-assure me that Khairy is no longer a hidden hand influencing Malaysian government policy? No. So, I guess you know where my vote will go during UMNO branch elections... if they'll let us have a proper contest that is!

Akhirnya Bermula Kesinambungan Semangat Melayu Tua Ke Muda

Pada zaman awal kebangkitan kuasa Khairy Jamaluddin, telah dikemukakan oleh para pendukungnya yang muda segenerasi dengannya bahawa ini melambangkan kebangkitan 'Golongan Muda' baru dalam UMNO. Kononnya golongan muda pimpinan Khairy ini membawa aspirasi baru yang lebih sesuai dengan zaman menjangkau 2020, dan dalam usaha membawa masyarakat Melayu ke era baru yang lebih makmur, nescaya akan berlaku pertembungan dengan 'Golongan Tua' dalam UMNO.

Malang bagi Khairy dan pendakyah-pendakyah beliau, generasi beliau, malah kebanyakan golongan di bawah 40 tahun yang menjadi sasaran telah menolak propaganda tersebut. Soalnya, agak susah untuk majoriti golongan muda Melayu untuk menerima dakyah yang:

1. Bertunggakkan tuduhan akan kelemahan 'Golongan Tua' yang tidak berdosa malah banyak menabur budi kepada generasi Melayu muda.
2. Didukung oleh golongan minoriti elitis yang berbuai emas, disusu madu ratu yang menunjuk-nunjukan kepandaian berbuktikan kelulusan institusi luar negara sambil berperisaikan surat nikah atau sijil kelahiran sebenarnya.
3. Melaga-lagakan tua serta muda, lama dan baru, budi dengan angan-angan masa hadapan.

Orang Melayu suatu masyarakat yang bersopan-santun. Dalam perbalahan bagaimana sekalipun, tikaman lidah tidak meluka hati, malah lebih rela rasa tidak puas hati disuratkan sahaja supaya boleh penegur mengalihkan bahasa kepada yang lebih pekerti demi menjaga silaturahim.

Dakyah Khairy mungkin tak termakan dek generasinya, tetapi malang sekali, beliau dan anasir-anasir di sekelilingnya telah berjaya mempengaruhi golongan kepimpinan Melayu teratas bahawa merekalah yang sah mewakili generasi muda. Malang sekali kepada pemimpin Melayu UMNO, kerana hasilnya adalah penolakan sebulat suara generasi muda terhadap intipati agenda Khairy yang dibawa oleh rejim Pak Lah sepanjang 4 tahun seperti dibuktikan oleh keputusan PRU-12.

Menarik sekali, hasil penolakan mendadak terhadap kerajaan Pak Lah/Khairy, kini suara-suara Muda yang lebih sah diterima-pakai sebagai wakil sudah mula berganding dengan suara Tua yang berbudi dan disegani. Prosa sopan Mukhriz dibayangi oleh surat yang lebih sulit dari pemimpin Tua sebuah Bahagian UMNO. Usul mengadakan Mesyuarat Agung Tergempar oleh Tungku Razaleigh Hamzah (KuLi) pula sudah dibayangi oleh kepimpinan Pemuda UMNO Johor.

Inilah gandingan Tua-Muda yang dinanti-nantikan, yang bakal membina bersama, yang bukan propaganda semata-mata. Gandingan beginilah yang merupakan tanda kesinambungan semangat perjuangan Melayu masih berbara sayup-sayup, menanti hembusan nafas baru dari kepimpinan generasi lama ke baru.

Gandingan ini kini wujud atas agenda menggesa mengunduran kepimpinan Pak Lah/Khairy sebelum binasa UMNO dan masa depan Melayu di bumi Malaysia.

Harapan penulis yang tidak seberapa ini adalah semoga gandingan sebegini juga bakal mengembalikan kegagahan dan kemakmuran masyarakat Melayu... Dulu, Kini dan Selamanya.

Desparate Acts Of Survival Of Lah-ist Regime

I've been receiving all sorts of info and coms nowadays, both in the form of sms, e-mails and of course there is continuous drivel from the mainstream press. All basically excuse Pak Lah from responsibility for the election results (despite the PRU12 being declared as being "Badawi's Election" by Tun Musa Hitam the week before polling).

Some go as far as saying it is the collective fault of all too many UMNO and BN leaders. A couple even blame Tun Dr Mahathir's previous practices when in power!

Then of course there are the conspiracy theories. That Anwar and Najib are in cahoots or that Najib will not be able to survive Anwar's assault (to scare the Mahathirites). That Najib can't oppose Pak Lah due to all sorts of crimes he allegedly has committed (to scare the Najibites). Of course with the rise of Mukhriz through his letter and the petition for support for it (below) all sorts of stuff are coming out about Mukhriz.

http://bigdogdotcom.wordpress.com/2008/03/14/mukhriz-hantar-surat-minta-pm-abdullah-letak-jawatan/

http://rockybru.blogspot.com/2008/03/petition-in-support-of-mukhriz-mahathir.html

Lets re-affirm a couple of things here:

1. BN and UMNO lost its 2/3 majority under Pak Lah's leadership. The only thing that has differed in terms of leadership of this country since the 2004 election landslide was the country experiencing 4 years of Lah-ist regime in its full glory of rising crime, reduced savings and spending power of the men and women on the street, increasing racial disharmony, Islamic deviation (Hadhari) and losing pace whilst selling-out to Singapore.
2. The reason the younger generation of Malays is against Pak Lah is not because we don't like the NEP (which is really now the NDP). What's not to like about cheaper housing, easier access and sometimes free education, government perks, business and contracts, et al? Actually, the younger generation of Malays hate Khairy Jamaluddin and how he and his cronies have perverted and hogged all the benefits of the NDP for themselves!

4 years is more than enough Lah... just withdraw into a sleepy retirement...

PAS And DAP Sharing Power? Creak, Crack...

Mr Lim Kit Siang has a problem. He wants power, but to keep power, he feels he still needs to remain a champion against Islam, with PAS as his bogey-party.

In Perak, he actually needs PAS to have some power, but the problem is... he doesn't want PAS to lead the state! The tough thing for him is, even if he was OK with PAS, he can't show he's OK, so... rocky's bru: Ah, Kit Siang!

Maybe he forgot that in Selangor, he needed PAS to keep BN out too. In fact, PAS would probably prefer BN as a partner in government instead of DAP. Thank god for PKR... or so you think...

Mr Lim should worry about keeping the inter-racial harmony in the state his son does control first... news of pork being openly sold at the Bayan Lepas open market for the first time in history on 9 March '08 is ruffling Malay and Muslim feathers already...

Not so easy being a leader in a coalition is it? Peace Mr Lim!

Forget About The Post-Mortem, What Is Left To Be Done?

There are too many post mortems around already on PRU12 that it isn't worth doing another one here. None are completely satisfying, but as a collective, the following combination ends up being quite comprehensive:

My friend Ong Kian Ming's: http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/79604
Bridget Welsh's for Malaysiakini: http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/79677
One that completes the picture with the Malay point of view, which also doubles as a petition, is MyKMU's: http://www.mykmu.net/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=6263

All agree that the blame for BN's election losses lie in large part on Pak Lah's leadership... or lack of. Collectively, the flaws of Pak Lah's leadership analysed are so all encompassing that even his one 'positive' behaviour, devotion to his family, end up being a significant negative to the voters!

There is one problem though... PAK LAH IS STILL AROUND! He's still PM! This is of course an extremely strange situation, but then, is it really? The Lah controlled press is trying to sell the story that it's not, but we all feel this is wierd!

In 1969, the then Alliance government under Tunku Abdul Rahman also lost its 2/3 majority. It didn't lose as badly as Pak Lah's government did, but it lose the 2/3. Now, Tunku didn't step down voluntarily either, even though he was severely criticised for his losses. It took more than a year until he was forced to resign from being PM in 1970, then he stayed on as UMNO President till 1971!

Based on this lesson of history, Pak Lah's future doesn't look too bright. I mean come on, who is Pak Lah compared to Tunku Abdul Rahman? The first PM of Malaysia also founded of ASEAN, formed Malaysia, as well as led us to victor over the communists as well as Sukarno's Indonesia during Konfrantasi! Pak Lah's only father of the K(J)-Economy, the Hadhari sect and 'plays golf' with Singapore!

As Pak Lah's losses were worse than Tunku's and his achievements naught, I'd say he probably won't last longer than Tunku. The problem though is that UMNO takes A VERY LONG TIME to get rid of any leader, the higher the leader's post, the longer! A PM can do a lot of damage in a year... we've seen 4 already!

You can say its inefficient, but actually its because UMNO is Malay, and Malays are polite! See how elders like Tun Dr M and KuLi have been the ones vocally asking for Pak Lah's resignation? Even BN is being polite, with Lim Keng Yaik's hint being by far the most pointed: http://rockybru.blogspot.com/2008/03/good-advice-on-bad-advisers.html#links

So, can the rakyat do more than it already has to speed Pak Lah's exit? A petition perhaps? Banners in front of houses? Maybe even private urgings when they bump into Pak Lah at a kenduri? The job is only half done... so what is left to be done?

UMNO Leadership Change A Solution To The Malay Malaise?

I received the note below as a response to my earlier posting and thought part of my response worth sharing, including also bringing in the Malaysian context.

Salam Mr Akhramsyah, I, too, have watched Tun's video clip a few nights ago and this is exactly the thing that has been dwelling in my mind the whole next day - even while in office!

As a loyal UMNO member, who still feel that UMNO is the only relevant party for Malays, I think we should try to find some ways to combat the real cause - money politics. Even Tun himself stated in his speech that he failed to combat this problem, when he himself knew that Malay voters will vote even if UMNO president chooses a tunggul kayu to represent them.

Some kind of "Perang Saraf" to change the mentality of Malay voters might be a little too ambitious, but I think, the best is to allow competition for the position of UMNO President once again (after Anwar suggested for "No Competition for the 2 top posts in 1997). Do you think anyone would dare to nominate Datuk Najib against Pak Lah in the next UMNO AGM?

Even though Najib himself is not a perfect leader (more of the lesser of 2 evils), but my naive thinking says that he'd have plans for Malays as opposed to the current PM. What say you?

On this matter, I'd rather not be too quick to prescribe and deliver a solution. Certainly what is said is a problem and certainly the revision in UMNO election laws proposed is one solution. Who challenges Pak Lah is irrelevant, but the system needs to be amended back to the nomination system that was available pre-1988, allowing a minimum 2 Bahagians to nominate leaders for any UMNO national post.

(Else, Pak Lah would have been challenged by KuLi in 2004, which KuLi would likely have lost then in my opinion).

However, there are other root cause problems with the Malays and UMNO that need to be addressed - once we have clarified and prioritised these problems, we should be able to do more than just address the more immediate problem of lack of leadership at the very top. We should try to get Malays to survive regardless of who is on top and in one go ensure the pool of people that can rise to the very top is of the highest quality.

This will also then allow Malays to clarify and re-assert its desired role as the majority race in Malaysia. This would in turn allow us to resume the road that was left post 1969, which Mahathir attempted to put us back onto with Vision 2020 and stalled under the Lah-ist regime, of making the Malaysian status of non-Malays more equitable relative to the Bumiputra.

Needless to say though, regime change has to occur in Malaysia after these elections in my mind. The current government is just too incompetent to remain as it is for all our sakes as Malaysians!

I remain, a loyal UMNO Member of Bendang Baru Branch, Langkawi.

Holier Than Thou? Prove It!

The recommendation by our former PM Tun Dr M that voters "vote for the candidate, not for the party" on this 8-3-8 election, has some interesting implications; besides the immediate memory trigger to some 'old' hacks like me on how it's an about turn from his old campaign that voters should "vote for the party, not for the candidate".

The old slogan (vote for the party) was to encourage voters not to vote for the opposition just because they are of the same race when the BN candidate is not. Anyway, that was the old story, but the reason why Tun Dr M is asking people not to vote the party but to carefully choose based on the quality of candidates these days are for some rather 'simple' reasons:

1. He didn't choose the candidates in this election, so I can't expect him to think Pak Lah's choices were perfect!
2. Tun Dr M may still be quite annoyed with a number of the BN candidates this year, including the AP dispensing lady, the current UMNO Sec-Gen who caused UMNO to be declared illegal 2 decades ago, a certain boy from Oxford that married well, some of his back-stabbing former assistants in Kubang Pasu, among others. All this is second guessing though, as as he is an old wise man, he may well be quite zen about all these people actually!
3. The third reason is a bit like the first two but with a twist. Tun Dr M thinks the BN candidates list is awful but he still wants BN to win. He thinks this can only be done by getting voters to see beyond the failings of some BN leaders and choosing the best of those available from BN; which, lets face it, is probably far superior to the bad blend of the ancient, quirky, strange and baby-faced offerings from the opposition!

However, in doing so, he has implicitly thrown down the gauntlet to Malaysians to prove that they are indeed Holier than Thou! He has great hopes that the indignant crescendo that led to the resignation of a certain philandering DVD-sex minister would be repeated across the broad section of the voting public on 8-3-8, leading to a cleansing of the nation's leadership by the electorate!

On the surface, Tun Dr M's urgings that voters choose the right candidates may appear to favour the opposition. Certainly if there were any corrupt leaders to be found, they would more likely be among BN candidates, as it is the party that is in almost total control of the country. Typically, it is such power and control that breeds corruption and poor morals to the extent that cannot be ignored.

There are any number of BN leaders that should be voted out for corruption - mostly suspected, but some rather blatantly evident to the electorate, what with large houses, cars, diamonds on wives' fingers or just plain sliminess. Some are disturbing in that they are addicted to skirts. Some must be found stupid (for instance from having MBA's from fake US universities) or are just plain rude.

Quite a number of incumbent MPs need to be taught a lesson as they may have ignored the electorate. Some, even veteran ones, may have shown themselves to be 'too good' or 'too busy' for the people, by doing silly things like not helping when voters were suffering from floods. The saddest types of candidates though appear to be proxy-candidates for their parents.

For instance, the DVD-sex minister has succeeded in getting his son to run in his place for MP. Another interesting case is the 'Klang Palace' MP, who managed to get his daughter-in-law to run in his place. Surely these candidates should feel the heat of the electorate if it is clear that they are not running for themselves but as proxies to parents that are too tainted for BN to consider running!

Of course, these proxy candidates are in good company, as there is this daughter of a glamarous ex-con opposition leader also running as a proxy in KL!

Now, Tun Dr M is not a stupid man. Surely when he said what he said, he didn't intend for the opposition to gain such a big advantage against BN. In his heart he probably realised that the opposition had hopeless candidates too. In fact, the opposition's weakness is most evident at the top, among its leaders!

1. The DAP's Lim Kit Siang likes to accuse BN of race-based politics, but does this whilst allowing his party to be disproportionately Chinese in agenda and leadership. In contrast, BN till now remains the party that fields the most candidates differing from the majority race in a constituency. Perhaps Kit Siang is still living down the legacy of his screaming for Malays to leave KL and pissing on the Malaysian flagpole at the Selangor MB's house in 1969?
2. PAS on the other hand is led by a Malay leader that on one hand declares the need for an Islamic state, but on the other condemned some Muslims as being deviant based on party affiliation. He thinks sins hence can be done against Muslims who are not PAS members! You'd think that he and Kit Siang would get along swimmingly as they both hate BN, but they don't!
3. Then of course there is the most celebrated ex-con politician in the world, Anwar Ibrahim. Here is a man famous for being against corruption despite being convicted of the criminal offence of corruption and abuse of power! His crime? Instructing the police to break the law and act against his enemies! Amazingly, some still believe he was a 'political prisoner'! And then of course there was the other thing... ooops... innocent by technicality!

So, on the one hand, Tun Dr M wants us to choose BN candidates, but only those that are of worth. At the same time, his request forces us to also look at the alternatives among the opposition with a more critical eye. This must leave voters with quite a problem in some constituencies I am sure. Then again, no one said being Holier than Thou was going to be easy...! Correct, correct correct...!

Yang Ku Ingin Menjelang 8-3-8

Ku ingin anakku berlari selamat di taman,
Ku ingin isteriku tersenyum belanja lumayan di pasaran,
Ku ingin kocekku tak kerana hutang beratnya,
Ku ingin zuriatku Islam tanpa had harinya,
Ku rindu sekali rasa percaya terhadap pemimpinku,
Ku tak mahu lagi hina ditertawa musuh bangsa, negaraku,
Apakah akan ku nikmati ini semua menjelang tarikh keramat tilik Cina 8/3/2008?

Nukilan di atas hasil rasa gelisah saya sebagai seorang ahli UMNO yang melihat Barisan Nasional seolah terkapar-kapar pada pilihanraya ini. Di antara yang membimbangkan saya adalah:

1. Kebimbangan terhadap peningkatan kos hidup belum ditangani dengan efektif sepanjang musim pilihanraya ini. Hanya harga minyak yang diperbicarakan, tetapi kebimbangan sedia ada hasil isu gula, minyak masak dan tepung yang saling berganti. Usaha kerajaan menangani ini sama ada diketahui tidak berkesan atau menimbulkan kebingungan.
2. Perasaan tentang kehilangan berterusan adik Sharlinie berubah dari kebimbangan menjadi kerunsingan apabila dimaklumkan bahawa usaha polis terpaksa dikurangkan supaya perjalanan pilihanraya boleh dipantau. Sudah tentu ini bukan menggambarkan niat pemerintah? Bukankah keselamatan anak-anak murapakan antara tanggungjawab utama.
3. Sebagai anak Kedah, terguris hati bila diisytiharkan yang peperangan politik paling sengit sedang berlaku di Pulau Pinang, Terengganu dan Kelantan. Tidakkah para pemimpin teratas sedar akan keadaan yang melanda Kedah kini, terumbang-ambing hasil penamaan calon yang kurang sesuai dan ketiadaan para ulama UMNO yang berupaya mempertahankan Islam Hadhari?

Namun dari segi politik, UMNO dan BN mungkin sekali bernasib baik yang para pembangkang di negara kita ini masih agak pincang idea, upaya dan pengalamannya. Ya lah, niat sendiri-sendiri mungkin baik, tetapi keikhlasan dan kewibawaan mereka terus menjadi tanda-tanya. Contohnya:

1. Sejauh manakah upaya rakyat Melayu menerima DAP yang ternyata mewar-warkan niat untuk membawa keadilan sejagat antara kaum dan menjayakan Bangsa Malaysia sebagai muslihat untuk melupuskan hak istimewa orang Melayu. Bayangan hubungan erat mereka dengan dalang PAP Singapura tetap menimbul kesangsian...
2. Yang si Anwar pula, tak habis agenda untuk memastikan paling kurang adalah satu kerusi Parlimen yang bakal dipegang PKR untuk diambil-alih olehnya sejurus tamat tempoh pengharaman beliau dari politik. Sekali lagi terlihat ini perjuangan Anwar, bukan perjuangan rakyat. Sampai Hidraf yang ekstrimis pun ditunggang olehnya.
3. Di arena web pula, usaha murni Raja Petra Kamaruddin mengeluarkan Deklarasi Rakyat menjadi bahan tertawa. Pembangkang tertawa sebab mereka dapat tumpang gratis usaha besar yang tidak mampu dihasilkan oleh mereka sendiri. Yang Kerajaan tertawa sebab senang sahaja mereka berkata..."kalau pembangkang berkuasa, mereka pun mahu terus menggunakan ISA, memasang kaki sebagai hakim, dapat kontrek"...

Walaubagaimanapun, BN harus waspada. Kini ada kemungkinan pengundi mengundi bukan kerana parti, bukan kerana sayang pembangkang, bukan kerana perkiraan untung-rugi pembangunan. Agenda pengundi sekarang mungkin melonjak menyokong pembangkang kerana marah terhadap kerajaan.

Marah pengundi kepada kerajaan kali ini bukan kerana marah kalah pemimpin seperti pilihanraya "Semangat 46" pada 1990. Bukan kerana marah kerana kesian "faktor Anwar" pada 1999. Marah kali ini kerana marah peribadi, marah yang dibara emosi yang membawa dan tak putus dibawa diri. Inilah yang patut ditangani pemimpin UMNO dan BN dalam beberapa hari ini... sebelum tarikh 8/3/2008 menjelma hakikatnya keramat buat siapa...

And The Winner Of The Lingam Inquiry Is... Pak Lah?!

In case you are out of touch, this piece is not about the popular chilli sauce brand of the same name... of course I'm talking about the VK Lingam video inquiry! True to my tradition, I jump in as people are getting a little less excited... no scrap that, I can see some people are probably more excited, but generally, everyone is getting more 'blur' about the whole inquiry.

As to how I am 'blur', as an Energy Economist, I wish to understand who benefits from the Royal Commission of Inquiry on the VK Lingam Video*. I mean come on, for what other reason would anyone pursue anything... to gain. We the public certainly wish to gain more insight on what the guy who looks like and talks like VK Lingam in the video is talking about.

But hold on, why do I as a member of the public want to know more about what he's talking about? Ah, perhaps I wish to be assured of the independence of the judiciary. Mmm... independence from what? Crime and criminal elements? Bias? Sure, this is of material concern to me. But the inquiry is on the appointment of judges. So how again is this going to benefit me?

Are our judges releasing criminals from judgement? No? Or perhaps we dislike some of their judgements. Are they too harsh or too lenient? Maybe they judge on principles we disagree with. Or maybe we don't like how they look, you know, in photos that show they may be biased. OK, I'm not really sure now why we don't like how judges are chosen, but lets just change the person picking them!

But the trial isn't about judges picked by Pak Lah, who as PM, currently does the picking of these judges. It's about judges picked by the former PM, Dr M. So the inquiry is about how the person who is no longer picking judges picked judges. OK, so why are we pursuing this? Ah, maybe by chasing the old PM we can make an example of him for the current and future PM.

Many people say Dr M seemed 'blur' also during his testimony, but...

I actually don't recall any major public outcry on judge appointments or any time the Malay Rulers did not approve Dr M's choice of judges when he was in power. OK, the Bar Council sometimes complained, but they're lawyers... A lot of noise over Tun Salleh Abbas' dismissal as Lord President, but the Agong consented even with that. No major issues on judicial appointments though.

Dr M testified that it was his perogative to choose whomsoever he pleases to be a judge. This is of course true. This is one of the functions we voted him in to perform as PM. And constitutionally, I suppose Dr M could have picked the man who used to sell him Apam on the recommendation of a regular Pekan Rabu beggar to be Chief Justice... assuming the Agong agrees of course.

From Dr M's testimony, Lingam's would have been just one of many voices he listened to. I would personally have chosen to investigate Dr M's driver - Dr M would have been listening to him all the time! Dr M listened to people and picked judges, it was his job, and if we didn't like how he picked judges, we should have voted him out no? But its too late! So, how does this inquiry benefit us again?

Actually, this being the Lingam inquiry, it should have come as no surprise to me that Lingam's testimony cause me to 'blur' the most. First, he claimed he did not know of any recording. The persons recording (businessman Loh Mui Fan and son) claimed it all happened, but now we have a case of he said-they said. Then of course, we have him saying he could have been drunk and talking rubbish.

Technical analysis proved that it was Lingam's voice on the tape (hence, "talks (rubbish) like me"). However, no one can say who was on the other side. (The person who looks like) Lingam on the video said (like Lingam) it was ex-Chief Justice Fairuz. Lingam testified he didn't know who it was. Is this rubbish? Was Lingam drunk when he testified? Is he drunk and talking rubbish all the time?

Now, if no technical evidence emerges to prove that Tun Fairuz was the person on the other line, the case will basically come down to this:

• Even if Lingam was the person who looked and talked like him on the video, he may have been talking rubbish
• He may have been talking rubbish to his brother (who is supposed to be nuts and hates Lingam) or someone else whilst claiming it was Tun Fairuz
• His recommendations would be just one of many sorts of rubbish thrown at Dr M on which judges should be picked
• Dr M is just as likely to pick anyone based on any old rubbish reason anyway as a judge for royal consent, and this would not be a crime

So, how would we benefit from knowing all this? Still blur...

Whilst we continue to blur on this, may I suggest we mull over who would definitely benefit from this trial:

Loh Mui Fan and son - actually I don't know how they benefit, but one does wonder... If he cared about the nation, the video would have come out years ago. Why didn't someone in the inquiry ask this question? The guy is a businessman who likes to bring wine to Lingam's house, perhaps because he enjoyed Lingam talking rubbish. So how does he benefit from this video's release now?

Anwar Ibrahim - The most publicity hungry politician in Malaysia was responsible for distributing the tape, and we thought it was for publicity. What he hopes to gain is apparent now that his lawyer is trying to get the inquiry to consider events in 1999. He's still gagging to clear his name from the corruption conviction (He's corrupt? No...) and the stain of being... you know (technically innocent though!).

The Malaysian Bar Council - They were the loudest in demanding the shortening of Tun Fairuz's tenure as Chief Justice. So, they must now prove that they were right, that Tun Fairuz was guilty of being under the influence of Lingam's rubbish. However, if the inquiry found Tun Fairuz likely to be innocent...

Pak Lah - Pak Lah? Sure, it's obvious he would benefit. Why would his government be allowing this rubbish to proceed without hindrance otherwise? Why is government controlled media covering this in such detail if he isn't benefiting? Having everyone focus on this historical rubbish is distracting everyone from the most politically motivated judicial appointment in Malaysian history.

Tan Sri Dato' Zaky Tun Azmi, former deputy chief of UMNO's Disciplinary Committee, stalwart UMNO lawyer, a noted expert in constitutional and election law, was 'parachuted' by Pak Lah into the post of President of the Court of Appeals on 5th December 2007, 2 months after being injected to the Federal bench, bypassing some 80+ other judges of more judicial experience in the process.

This appointment of Pak Lah's would hence likely be Malaysia's Chief Judge some time in 2008.

This blog reference gives more (scarier) info: http://asme.wordpress.com/2007/12/06/new-chief-justice/

So, isn't it wonderfull for Pak Lah that as his party really takes control of the judiciary, everyone is busy looking at an inquiry over a potentially drunk lawyer talking rubbish? Ergo, Pak Lah is probably the biggest beneficiary of this inquiry!

There is one potential spoiler though. I understand Tun Fairuz is pissed-off over his name being dragged through the mud over this. I wonder what Tun Fairuz would reveal on the stand. Would he reveal his correspondence with Pak Lah on Tan Sri Zaky's appointment? Would he reveal the instructions over the appointment of judges for Anwar's successful appeal from the 'other' conviction?

How indeed would anyone benefit then... blur, blur... rubbish!

*Commission of Inquiry of the Video Clip Recording of Images of a Person Purported to be an Advocate and Solicitor Speaking on the Telephone on Matters Regarding the Appointment of Judges Under The Commissions of Inquiry Act 1950.

Masih Relevankah Anwar Setelah Dikalahkan Oleh Samy Vellu Di Ijok?

Benarkan saya bermula dengan memohon maaf kepada Dato' Seri Samy Vellu, Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak dan YB K Parthiban atas salah analisa di blog ini tempohari akan peluang kemenangan BN di Ijok. Saya mengaku termakan propaganda tentang perpecahan MIC Ijok akibat iri-hati awal Ketua Bahagian MIC Kuala Selangor kerana tidak dipilih sebagai calon BN pada pilihanraya kecil tersebut.

Namun dalam seminggu sebelum pembuangan undi di Ijok, saya terbaca paparan berikut oleh seorang blogger ulung (http://bigdogdotcom.wordpress.com/2007/04/25/bloggers-bertemu-parthiban/) yang menunjukkan secara nyata yang K Parthiban bukan sahaja calon yang tepat, malah bakal menang akibat aktiviti giat beliau di peringkat akar-umbi MIC mahupun NGO pemuda di Ijok.

Kemenangan BN di Ijok membuktikan sekali lagi yang dari segi kelincahan politik pilihanraya di peringkat akar-umbi, Samy Vellu kekal ulung dikalangan ahli politik kaum India di Malaysia. Ada juga yang mengatakan bahawa beliau jelas terletak di tangga kedua selepas Tun Dr Mahathir dan sebelum Tun Lim Chong Eu dalam kategori tersebut jika dibandingkan semua pemimpin politik tanahair yang masih hidup.

Lihat sahajalah bagaimana dengan pemilihan calon yang tepat sahaja, Samy hampir menjamin kemenangan BN di Ijok, sekaligus membuktikan Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim hanyalah sekadar fenomena politik semusim-dua yang kini kian lelah hidup politiknya di luar payung UMNO.

Berbalik kepada perkara asal, ke manakah arah Anwar selepas Ijok. Keputusan Ijok memang telihat seperti bedalan pukul-mati terhadap Anwar. Anwar dan para pembangkang begitu mengharapkan kemenangan sebagai pemangkin masa hadapan mereka. Yang satu sebagai bukti beliau masih layak dilayan (dan mungkin diterima?) UMNO manakala yang ramai kekal mencari-cari bukti inilah pemimpin yang dinanti-nantikan setelah kembalinya KuLi ke pangkuan UMNO.

Dari awal lagi Ijok diwar-warkan sebagai pertembungan Anwar dan Najib. Para penyokong Anwar, termasuklah 'Gerakan Anti-Najib' (GAN) yang kononnya ada juga pemimpin UMNO, begitu yakin akan kemenangan kuda tunggangan Anwar, Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim, sehinggakan Pak Lah lambat sekali turun padang, mungkin supaya Najib boleh dipersalahkan atas kekalahan BN yang pada awalnya dijangkakan sekaligus memberi modal untuk kembalinya Anwar ke UMNO.

Tidak hairanlah yang kemasukan semula Anwar ke dalam UMNO menjadi topik Mesyuarat Majlis Tertinggi (MKT) UMNO sejurus selepas Ijok. Malang sekali bagi Anwar, dengan kekalahan PKR di Ijok, modal yang rencananya akan diajukan oleh 'teman-teman Anwar' ke MKT UMNO hangus! Tidak hairanlah bila diberitakan yang MKT menolak langsung kemasukan kembali Anwar ke dalam UMNO... http://www.thesundaily.com/article.cfm?id=17789

Mungkin Anwar sendiri menyedari bahawa hidup politiknya terancam apabila pada hari-hari akhir berkempen, Pak Lah tiba-tiba turun padang! Mungkin sekali budak-budak berhingus dalam politik yang betenggek di Tingkat 4 akhirnya sedar Anwar bakal kalah, maka mereka menasihatkan Pak Lah cepat-cepat turun padang kerana takut kemenangan BN di Ijok bakal dilaungkan sebagai kemenangan Najib mengatasi sandiwara bersulam tohmahan bertalu-talu si Anwar.

Seorang pemerhati yang condong kearah pembangkang siap mempersoalkan sama ada tindak-tanduk Anwar dan Khairy yang saling membedil satu sama lain pada hari-hari akhir di Ijok menggambarkan putusnya usaha sulit mereka dan GAN untuk membawa Anwar kembali ke UMNO? http://www.harakahdaily.net/bm/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=7566&Itemid=28

Lebih hebat lagi, kelihatan seperti serangan Khairy terhadap Anwar masih tak putus-putus, walaupun di media arus perdana, apabila beliau dipetik mengatakan parti PKR dan Anwar telah menjadi sejarah apabila kalah di Ijok... http://www.utusan.com.my/utusan/content.asp?y=2007&dt=0507&pub=Utusan_Malaysia&sec=Politik&pg=po_01.htm

Ijok sebagai sebuah pilihanraya kecil mungkin tidak kelihatan sepenting pilihanraya umum dalam perkembangan politik tanahair. Namun permulaan kehancuran aspirasi politik Anwar dan pendukung-pendukungnya mungkin hanya salah satu dari hasil kekalahannya di Ijok. Mungkin juga dengan pengukuhan kedudukan Najib sekarang, strategi penduduk Tingkat 4 juga akan berubah serta lebih berwaspada akan masa depan mereka pasca zaman Lah.

Jelas sekarang bahawa para pembangkang mahupun para penyokong kerajaan yang kurang senang akan tindak-tanduk rejim Lah tidak boleh lagi menaruh harapan terhadap Anwar sebagai pemangkin perubahan. Mungkinkah Ijok berupaya menggerakkan rakyat Malaysia supaya membuat penilaian kritis terhadap segala isu tanpa diwarnai harapan terhadap seorang pemimpin sahaja, baik Anwar, mahupun Tun Dr M? Kita hanya mampu mendoakannya.

Namun, yang melucukan sekali, kiranya benar kepupusan muktamad politik Anwar Ibrahim bermula di Ijok, ia bukanlah kerana usaha Najib, yang hanya sekadar pelakon gandingan terpenting pada pilihanraya kecil tersebut, tetapi hasil ketokohan calon BN, K Parthiban, dan kebijaksanaan pemimpin ulung kaum India, Samy Vellu.

Jelas Samy sendiri menyedari akan perkara ini apabila beliau berkata,“Saya percaya PKR melakukan kesilapan meletakkan calon pilihan parti itu, Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim,” sambil tersenyum sendiri agaknya? ... http://www.utusan.com.my/utusan/content.asp?y=2007&dt=0507&pub=Utusan_Malaysia&sec=Politik&pg=po_07.htm

Kenapakah Pilihanraya Harus Diadakan Pada Tahun 2007... BUKAN Kerana Anwarlah!

Dewasa ini telah diperkatakan oleh segenap lapisan masyarakat yang pilihanraya umum bakal diadakan pada akhir tahun ini. Ini walaupun Pak Lah tidak perlu mengisytiharkan pilihanraya sebelum tahun 2009 memandangkan mandat teguh yang dipegang oleh beliau hasil kemenangan besar pada awal tahun 2004.

Lazimnya dikatakan yang Pak Lah ingin mendahulukan pilihanraya tersebut kerana:

1. Bimbangnya beliau yang menjelang awal tahun 2008, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim akan berupaya bergiat dengan lebih aktif dalam politik selesai tempoh penggantungan hasil pemenjaraan DSAI kerana jenayah rasuah.
2. Berita 'kekuatan ekonomi' yang digembar-gemburkan oleh media di bawah penguasaan Tingkat 4.
3. Pengagihan dana RMK9 kepada para penyokong UMNO serta BN yang berterusan secara langsung dan tidak langsung sejak akhir tahun lepas.

Ini semua dikatakan membawa petanda yang pilihanraya akan diumumkan sejurus selepas pengumuman belanjawan 2008, apabila pengagihan dana kepada rakyat pula akan diadakan, mungkin sekali di penghujung atau selesainya Syawal.

Walaupun saya bersetuju yang ada kemungkinan besar Pak Lah berniat demikian, Tangen yang ingin saya ambil adalah 3 sebab di atas bukanlah sebab kenapa Pak Lah ingin mengisytiharkan pilihanraya menjelang akhir 2007.

Sebenarnya, apalah sangat yang perlu ditakutkan oleh Pak Lah tentang menjelmanya semula Anwar Ibrahim ke arena politik. Walaupun Anwar mungkin lebih berupaya memangkinkan usaha dan meningkatkan prestasi pihak pembangkang, tetapi dari segi jentera politik, pihak pembangkang tetap mengalami kelemahan terutama di luar kawasan di mana mereka sudah sedia aktif selama lebih setengah abad.

Anwar tanpa jentera UMNO untuk mendukungnya bagaikan singa yang telah dikasi.

Yang sepatutnya lebih membimbangkan Pak Lah adalah prestasi ekonomi dan kenaikan kos hidup rakyat yang semakin menghimpit, terutama bagi golongan makan gaji dan berpendapatan rendah. Golongan ini lazimnya dari kalangan bangsa Melayu, dan initiatif-initiatif kerajaan, walaupun manis dimulut, ternyata menanduskan kocek, dengan naiknya kos tol, api serta minyak, dan memeritkan hati, apabila kemudahan DEB diancam oleh "jaguh Hitam" Pak Lah sendiri.

Mana tidaknya Tingkat 4 merasakan perlu untuk menggembar-gemburkan, malah sedikit-sebanyak me-reka berita yang ekonomi negara sekarang kian kukuh. Mungkin penduduk Tingkat 4 perlu melindungi diri dari tuduhan bahawa nasihat dan daya-fikir OxBridge yang mentah tidak ubah liat-hanyirnya berbanding pandapat anak muda lepasan universiti lain yang sama kurang berpengalaman.

Orang-orang lama lazimnya tahu yang niat disebalik azam Pak Lah memajukan tarikh Pilihanraya ke akhir 2007 adalah semata-mata untuk menguatkan kedudukan politiknya di dalam UMNO. Ternyata pemimpin yang paling kuat dalam UMNO sekarang adalah Dato' Seri Najib Tun Razak. Inilah sebabnya Anwar menumpukan serangannya bertubi-tubi kearah Najib, bukan Pak Lah. Kalau ada komplot lain tu, tak tahu lah, tetapi ternyata Najib lebih penting kepada UMNO.

Ini adalah kedudukan yang kurang selesa untuk Pak Lah, kerana beliau lebih memerlukan Najib dari sebaliknya untuk kekal berkuasa. Adakah patut ketua harus mengharapkan sokongan nombor dua sebegini rupa... tidak terancamkah Pak Lah? Mungkin Najib datang dari darah bangsawan yang terbukti setia kepada ketua walaupun beliau lebih berpengaruh, seperti bapanya juga. Tetapi ingatlah yang bapanya juga sedia dan lekas mengambil alih apabila ketuanya rebah...

Maka Pilihanraya Umum kelak akan membolehkan Pak Lah melakukan beberapa perkara:

1. Mengalihkan kerusi pencalonan dari penyokong-penyokong Najib atau pemimpin UMNO lain, seperti penyokong Tun Dr. M dan Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah (KuLi). Ini memberi peluang para pemimpin tersebut diberikan kedudukan yang mampu dipergunakan untuk pertandingan dalam parti.
2. Pengalihan kerusi ini digandingkan dengan pengagihan dana sempena 'persiapan Pilihanraya Umum', yang sebenarnya untuk mengukuhkan kedudukan penyokong Pak Lah untuk bertanding dalam Pemilihan UMNO peringkat Cawangan dan Bahagian kelak. Ini terutama sekali di Bahagian-Bahagian yang mana UMNO tidak memegang kerusi Wakil Rakyat atau ADUN dan dikuasai pemimpin yang kuat mengkritik seperti Seremban dan Cheras.
3. Memberi peluang untuk jentera jaguh-jaguh Pak Lah dengan senyap 'mengalahkan' calon UMNO yang 'kurang sesuai' pada hemah para penasihat politik beliau semoga kekalahan tersebut memincangkan kedudukan para pemimpin tersebut di kaca-mata ahli-ahli Bahagian.

Tidak hairanlah yang Pilihanraya 2007 bakal diadakan sekitar setahun sebelum Perhimpunan Agung UMNO. Sebelumnya, pemilihan pemimpin UMNO pada peringkat Cawangan serta Bahagian mesti diadakan. Makanya rakyat tidak harus hairan yang tiada kebimbangan pada Pak Lah akan risiko mandat besarnya tidak mungkin dimenanginya lagi. Apalah perlunya mandat besar dari rakyat kiranya Pilihanraya 2007 akan tetap memperkukuhkan kedudukannya dalam UMNO.

Tetapi ini rancangan Pak Lah semata-mata. Beliau memang seorang perancang yang hebat, seperti dilihat di kacamata TV rakyat Malaysia setiap malam. Adakah rancangan Pak Lah akan membuahkan hasil yang diimpikannya? Mampukah Pak Lah membuahkan hasil dalam bidang politik yang kononnya beliau memang ahli, bukan seperti bidang-bidang lain seperti ekonomi? Wallahualam... Adakah Pak Nujum yang berupaya menilik berdasarkan prestasi Pak Lah hingga kini?