Sunday, June 22, 2008

SAPP And The Week's First Can Of Worms... Some Observations

SAPP will likely try to open the first significant can of worms of the week. This is of course the highly expected vote of no confidence in Pak Lah as PM.

There's been much said by Pak Lah's supporters, both sincere and appointed, of SAPP's move to oppose Pak Lah whilst remaining in BN as hypocritical. Actually, it isn't. Perhaps many of Pak Lah's supporters are so unfamiliar with how a parliamentary democracy works; there have been many leaders of other democracies that have been removed by their legislative allies before, only to be replaced by another ally. It should actually be easier than a 'lompat pagar' act!

This effort should nicely open a whole lot of can of worms though, such as:
  1. Will the speaker allow the vote to proceed? If not, this may be yet another confirmation of Pak Lah's weakness that he dare not allow 'his' BN MPs to demostrate their confidence in him... or otherwise...
  2. If called, a vote will test the sincerity of the opposition. My suspicion is that Pak Lah will win as the opposition is split on this issue. PAS wants to see Pak Lah go for the sake of Islam, Malays and the nation. PKR wants Pak Lah to go as it would like to see Anwar or his wife as PM. DAP however would prefer for Pak Lah to stay! Note how they are defending Pak Lah against Tun Dr M? DAP would let the country suffer so they can win bigger in 2013!
  3. The vote will also ultimately test the resolve of many on the BN bench who are sick of Pak Lah. Interestingly, even Pak Lah's BN opponents may be split. KuLi has already declared he will vote for Pak Lah thinking he can beat Pak Lah in UMNO elections come December.
  4. It would also be interesting to see how Pak Lah then manages the aftermath. He may now threaten BN MPs to ensure all vote for him, but even if some don't and if he survives, Pak Lah can't punish these 'traitors' to him anyway as he needs every MP he can get to stay on the BN side! Sack SAPP from BN? Rubbish!

Enough worms from one act for the week perhaps? More coming...

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