Tuesday, September 02, 2008

What Will Happen On 16 September 2008 - A Scenario

I'm sick of being asked whether Anwar Ibrahim really will take over as PM leading a Pakatan Rakyat government on 16 September 2008. Hence, as part of my effort to retain calm over Ramadhan, I wish to record here my theory.

On 16 September 2008, the Parliament will be closed for its Ramadhan break. Hence, any change of government through a dramatic 'crossing the Parliament floor' followed by a vote-of-no-confidence of the present government, or vice versa, will not happen. Don't believe me, check out this foreign press report... which does provide a bizzare way out, which I will ignore for now... :-)

So, what will happen on 16 September 2008? Well, one theory is that Anwar will claim that he said 16 September, but didn't declare which year! But this would not be wise, especially as the rumour mill has reached frenzied levels. Last I heard, Anwar already has a new cabinet line-up, which would includes even UMNO 'reformists' like Zaid Ibrahim, forgetting of course that Zaid is not an MP and would not be able to help Anwar seize power in the first place!

So, what do I think will happen? I think on 16 September 2008:
  1. Pak Lah will declare that PKR has just joined the Barisan Nasional coalition, thus restoring its 2/3 majority in Parliament.

  2. Pak Lah will also declare that all is forgiven and that Anwar, who if I'm not mistaken is not yet a member of PKR, will be joining UMNO.

  3. Anwar will then take the stage and declare that he has decided the best way to reform government is from the inside. He will then declare his support for Pak Lah's efforts in cleaning up government and that he will be contesting for the Deputy Presidency of UMNO.

This I think is a far more realistic scenario that Anwar cobbling together a coalition with PAS (with its Islamic State agenda), DAP (with its secular Malaysian Malaysia agenda) and a bunch of BN cross-overs, almost certainly 'bought over' by promises of positions and all sorts of loot! Anwar could then only rely on PKR's loyalty as PKR's only agenda is to restore Anwar to power anyway.

By having PKR join BN, Anwar will have achieved his goal of returning to UMNO whilst keeping a weapon still firmly held at BN's throat. Anwar can then contest for whatever post he wants as the 'saviour' of UMNO. He might even forget about contesting against Najib and go after Pak Lah's post directly! Pak Lah may even concede! And KJ, being such an Anwarista, would happily oblige...

After all, besides bringing Anwar his new passport personally some years ago, didn't KJ also help bring Anwar back to power by:

  1. Convincing Pak Lah to announce PRU12 on 8 March 2008 despite advice from all the intelligence services that BN would lose its 2/3 majority and some key state to the opposition.

  2. Modifying the BN PRU12 candidates' list such as to sabotage the electability of the party in some key constituencies.

  3. Actually going campaigning in marginal seats, especially where Anwar's key opposition allies were candidates. I've heard at least a couple of times how candidates complained that their campaigns were going well until KJ came with his convoy of SUVs and antagonised the voters with his pomp and arrogance; i.e. sabotaging their campaign!

  4. Finally killing the BN campaign in Permatang Pauh with his 'kuburkan Anwar' speech. Permatang Pauh was headed for a reduced majority for Anwar until KJ, Ezam and Nalla arrived. It's been estimate that BN lost between 2,000 to 5,000 votes due to that speech!

  5. And one musn't forget that this wouldn't be KJ's first attempt to bring Anwar back. If things went to plan, PKR would have won Ijok last year and Anwar would have been in UMNO already, and perhaps even with a royal pardon in hand! But Samy Vellu was still credible to the Indians then...

So, Anwar back in UMNO on 16 September... I'm imagining how I'd react if this scenario does come to pass...

4 comments:

My Oh My said...

Stuck between a rock and a hard place!

While I detest to the idea of being ruled by Anwar, who i consider insincere and not worthy of my trust (to put it mildly), i am equally fed-up with UMNO and its incompetent leaders - umno that is supposed to be the sole champion for the Malays as a society and culture.

And today, after the UMNO been made to apologized and chastised publicly again and again...I lose face as a Malay. In other words, tak dak teloq ke?

There are many ways to handle this matter, rather than appearing pathetic. I am so embarrassed of UMNO and if you ask me right now, go ahead Anwar - take over the country. Melayu kadang kadang harus disepit, barulah mereka bersatu. I am saying the malays, not UMNO.

doktor spin said...

Your posting is not a mere illusion. Suffice to say, Anwar and Anwaristas have been negotiating with a group of scoundrels desperate to destroy Umno from within.

I'm all for good governance without racial barriers but we have to admit due to our prejudices, social fabric and poor understanding of history, Malaysia is not ready yet. Even in an ideal world, Anwar is not the man to lead us. Words must be translated into firm action, but some talk a lot without taking action, and soon no one will listen, just as a polluted source will give rise to a dirty stream, an insincere person will send forth a bad reputation!

Abi Ayyub said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Abi Ayyub said...

Actually, this is an interseting way to look at it. All and fine don't you think, BN gets back ythe majority, you even get back Selangor and Perak, wow ... great day.

I've always believe that UMNO/BN government are actually unsure of themselves, what with 140 MPs, against Pakatan at 81+1, what confidence are we talking about.

If the people decide that the new government shall be not from UMNO/BN it will come, but what are we the malays doing, be better because we can, or just "PERASAN" that it is our right.

History has proven, that a true malay can be successful just like anyone else, do not rely to much on other unimportant factors and definately "LIES" ...

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