What Will Happen On 16 September 2008 - A Scenario

I'm sick of being asked whether Anwar Ibrahim really will take over as PM leading a Pakatan Rakyat government on 16 September 2008. Hence, as part of my effort to retain calm over Ramadhan, I wish to record here my theory.

On 16 September 2008, the Parliament will be closed for its Ramadhan break. Hence, any change of government through a dramatic 'crossing the Parliament floor' followed by a vote-of-no-confidence of the present government, or vice versa, will not happen. Don't believe me, check out this foreign press report... which does provide a bizzare way out, which I will ignore for now... :-)

So, what will happen on 16 September 2008? Well, one theory is that Anwar will claim that he said 16 September, but didn't declare which year! But this would not be wise, especially as the rumour mill has reached frenzied levels. Last I heard, Anwar already has a new cabinet line-up, which would includes even UMNO 'reformists' like Zaid Ibrahim, forgetting of course that Zaid is not an MP and would not be able to help Anwar seize power in the first place!

So, what do I think will happen? I think on 16 September 2008:

1. Pak Lah will declare that PKR has just joined the Barisan Nasional coalition, thus restoring its 2/3 majority in Parliament.


2. Pak Lah will also declare that all is forgiven and that Anwar, who if I'm not mistaken is not yet a member of PKR, will be joining UMNO.


3. Anwar will then take the stage and declare that he has decided the best way to reform government is from the inside. He will then declare his support for Pak Lah's efforts in cleaning up government and that he will be contesting for the Deputy Presidency of UMNO.

This I think is a far more realistic scenario that Anwar cobbling together a coalition with PAS (with its Islamic State agenda), DAP (with its secular Malaysian Malaysia agenda) and a bunch of BN cross-overs, almost certainly 'bought over' by promises of positions and all sorts of loot! Anwar could then only rely on PKR's loyalty as PKR's only agenda is to restore Anwar to power anyway.

By having PKR join BN, Anwar will have achieved his goal of returning to UMNO whilst keeping a weapon still firmly held at BN's throat. Anwar can then contest for whatever post he wants as the 'saviour' of UMNO. He might even forget about contesting against Najib and go after Pak Lah's post directly! Pak Lah may even concede! And KJ, being such an Anwarista, would happily oblige...

After all, besides bringing Anwar his new passport personally some years ago, didn't KJ also help bring Anwar back to power by:

1. Convincing Pak Lah to announce PRU12 on 8 March 2008 despite advice from all the intelligence services that BN would lose its 2/3 majority and some key state to the opposition.


2. Modifying the BN PRU12 candidates' list such as to sabotage the electability of the party in some key constituencies.


3. Actually going campaigning in marginal seats, especially where Anwar's key opposition allies were candidates. I've heard at least a couple of times how candidates complained that their campaigns were going well until KJ came with his convoy of SUVs and antagonised the voters with his pomp and arrogance; i.e. sabotaging their campaign!


4. Finally killing the BN campaign in Permatang Pauh with his 'kuburkan Anwar' speech. Permatang Pauh was headed for a reduced majority for Anwar until KJ, Ezam and Nalla arrived. It's been estimate that BN lost between 2,000 to 5,000 votes due to that speech!


5. And one musn't forget that this wouldn't be KJ's first attempt to bring Anwar back. If things went to plan, PKR would have won Ijok last year and Anwar would have been in UMNO already, and perhaps even with a royal pardon in hand! But Samy Vellu was still credible to the Indians then...

So, Anwar back in UMNO on 16 September... I'm imagining how I'd react if this scenario does come to pass...