Global Economy Going Kaput! Die! Die! Die!

Time to get serious about the economy again after the great 16 September distractions. Over the past few years, the global economy has been growing on the basis of the following:

1. Rapid growth in the Real Estate sectors in the US, UK, Spain and other parts of the world (minus the usual exceptions such as Somalia, Iraq, Japan, etc), fueled by cheap mortgage financing. In the US in particular, re-financing activities involving 'sub-prime' mortgaging and loans created an economic bubble driving consumption.


2. US and other heightened OECD consumption drove growth in countries that have recovered from the Asian Crises of the late nineties and more significantly, provided the burgeoning market to fuel China's economic growth through manufacturing of exports. China's economic fairy-tale came into its own in the new century with double digit growth from rapidly evolving industries and a middle-class expansion occuring simultaneously. Soon China was not just a beneficiary, but became a new engine for the global economy.


3. China's manufacturing growth and shift in role in the global economy spurred a strong upwards trend in commodities prices. Commodity driven economies, not just the oil producing Gulf States but also Russia, South Africa and smaller players like Malaysia benefitted and also found a rejuvenated anchor for growth. In the Middle East, this fueled its own local construction boom, soon to (proportionately) rival that of China. Even India began to awake from decades-long slumber.

But it all began to unravel where it began, in the US. What was bound to happen happened, sub-prime mortgages and loans, i.e. those given to individuals otherwise deemed unworthy of credit and at higher interest exposure, began to fail! Surprise, surprise, especially with many of such sub-prime borrowers typically choosing to use the re-financing gains for consumption, not investment! In a sense, sub-prime lenders are a bit like alongs la, but with lower interest and without the parangs.

So these sub-prime mortgages in the US failed. But get this, the reason why the sub-prime lenders didn't need parangs was because they covered some of their risk of losing by hedging using financial instruments. Hedging is a bit like insuring, only you're not really insuring, but trying to play the direction of the market against itself. I know, confusing, but never mind. Suffice to say, when the sub-prime lenders failed, they didn't fail alone. They actually put the institutions that they hedged their risks with at risk.

And so we had the beginning of the financial crisis from this bursting of the sub-prime 'bubble', with banks that were hedging failing, and surprise-surprise, it wasn't just smaller banks, but bigger institutions that were involved, and not just US investment banks like Merryl Lynch and financial giants like Citigroup, but from across the globe, such as mortgage specialist Northern Rock in the UK and Swiss institution UBS both hit hard. (Northern Rock actually failed). Following that:

1. The bursting of the sub-prime bubble affected confidence in the real estate market worldwide, which then led to the collapse of real estate bubbles in the UK and Spain. Soon, all the OECD nations were affected, including most critically Japan, which had its fragile economic re-emergence scuppered.


2. Now that there wasn't any sub-prime lending available, and in fact with many home-owners losing their houses, consumption also dropped in the US (also followed by others). This directly impacted China's export growth.


3. China was at least still going strong for a while, but all this was because of the Olympics. But then the Olympics started, and all the economic activity due to the build-up to the Olympics seized.


4. And with reduced consumption, there was less need for commodities as raw materials for manufacturing. So guess what, oil, palm-oil, iron et al prices all began collapsing.


5. Now suddenly the Middle Eastern and other commodities dependent economies are finding their cash cow producing less cash!

With 5, we see merchants banks like Lehman Brothers and Merryl Linch (that barely survived the first round) now being hit by the collapse of the commodities bubble! Serves them right, they were SPECULATING on commodities, which contributed to much higher prices of such materials worldwide in the first place, especially over the course of the past year. They also came in later in the game and seemed to focus on paper only, with higher risk, unlike Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, which began speculating earlier and with physical trading support.

Lehman is now dead and Merryl has gotten itself 'saved', or rather 'eaten up' by Bank of America. But now comes the interesting part, which will really 'rock the world'. The sub-prime lenders had hedged their bets with these investment banks etc, but these investment banks etc. in turn actually INSURED themselves against losses. And this is where AIG comes into the picture.

I know it's Ramadhan, but to understand the whole AIG thing, I would have to recommend that people check out this posting at Malaysia-Finance Blogspot, remembering that the blog is about finance and just HAPPENS to have some nice pictures of naughty people... or is it naughty pictures of nice people...

Anyway, here's some exerpts of what the blog says to encourage you to check it out:

If AIG is to fail, it poses a much larger threat to the financial system than Lehman Brothers ever did because it plays an integral role in several key markets: credit derivatives, mortgages, corporate loans and hedge funds. AIG touches every single sector of the financial spectrum. Funds and investors who bought these CDS, who thought they had insurance (and now needs it because the chances of these mortgage-backed securities failing is very high), will now be faced themselves with no insurance.

Its like insuring your home fo fire, paying the premium and your house getting burnt down and the insurance firm went belly up. So if AIG collapses, which means their assets cannot serve their overall liabilities, you'd be staring at getting only a small fraction of what was covered.

If A.I.G. collapsed, its hundreds of billions of dollars of mortgage-related assets would be added to those being sold by other financial institutions. This would just depress values further. The counterparties around the world to A.I.G.’s credit default swaps may be unable to collect on their trades. More failures, particularly of hedge funds, could follow.

The full posting does offer some hope, but with an assortment of ifs.

Now, back to the Malaysian socio-political context. The last time we survived the Asian Crisis, we had Tun Dr M at the helm of a pretty strong team steering the economy back to health. Now we have Pak Lah... and as an alternative, we have Anwar Ibrahim, who was killing the economy before Tun Dr M had him sacked...

Tun Dr M and Tun Daim would likely help anyone who asks for assistance in saving the country from disaster. Pak Lah and Anwar are two of the most unlikeliest persons to ask for their help. We have an alternative genius in the form of KuLi (of Petronas, PNB, etc. fame), but he also will never be asked by Pak Lah and Anwar. We need a leader who is either a genius or can call on the strength of exprience of these aging geniuses to help us survive the coming storm. Let's hope Najib, Muhyiddin or indeed KuLi himself can get into the hot-seat ahead of the storm-front.

Tahniah Anwar Ibrahim... 16 September 2008 Dalam Kenangan...

Belum tamat lagi pun 16 September, namun jenaka tersebut sudah pun berlegar rancak di ruang pesanan sms rakyat Malaysia:

Akhirnya kejayaan berpihak kepada Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim pada jam 2.45 petang tadi, dengan mendapat loncatan 30 kerusi plastik dan sebuah kabinet besi dari Pusat Perabot Courts Mammoth. Beliau telah mengangkat sumpah jawatan Perdana Menteri di hadapan GAMBAR Yang Di Pertuan Agong di rumahnya di Segambut. Turut hadir pimpinan tertinggi Parti PKR, DAP dan serpihan PAS 'liberal' bersama wakil Majlis Peguam. Syabas diucapkan...

Namun dalam kegirangan, teman-teman dalam UMNO dan BN harus bersyukur dan waspada akan begitu hampirnya Anwar mengecapi kejayaan. Masalah kita yang terkini sekali adalah kelekaan yang mungkin menyusupi riak, dilaukkan pula dengan kesediaan Pak Lah untuk mengakui kegagalan Anwar hasil usahanya. Ini walaupun tindakan Pak Lah sendiri tempohari dengan permainan ISA yang separuh masak dan tidak berkesan hampir menjahanamkan segalanya.

Anwar gagal sebenarnya kerana sudah ada harapan baru meniup, menyinar, menembusi kegelapan UMNO semenjak akhir minggu lepas. Kegagalan Anwar disebabkan kejayaan Tan Sri Muhyiddin membawa harapan baru yang Tun Dr M kini bersedia kembali ke UMNO bagi membantu KuLi dalam usaha menumbangkan Pak Lah dari tampuk kuasa.

Perjuangan masih belum selesai... dan masyarakat yang ikhlas mahukan perubahan juga pasti gembira melihat seorang gergasi sudah semakin bangun mengasah kuku dan menyuarakan wadahnya...

I Like The ISA... But...

I like the ISA. I think it's a cool act, that when wielded with wisdom, can and has ensured the harmony and security of the country.

Of course one would wish that as our nation becomes more mature and civilised that the ISA would eventually be unnecessary. Unfortunately our nation has not demonstrated much maturity of late, what with the masses succumbing to much hate-mongering between leaders of different races and differing political affiliations. At times like this, the ISA's relevance is restated...

However, for the ISA to be effective as a tool for good, for it is nothing more than a tool, it has to be wielded with wisdom. This is where we have a problem at the moment. There isn't much wisdom at the head of our government at the moment to wield the ISA! In fact the ISA + Lah-ism = DISASTER!

Reminder: LAH-ISM => THE ACT OF INDECISIVELY DOING THE WRONG THING.

So with the present Lah-ist government now applying the ISA the way they do anything, indecisively and wrongly, it is no wonder that underlying issues remain unaddressed. Whilst Datuk Ahmad Ismail's suspension from UMNO calmed the Chinese down, it made many in UMNO quite upset. So the ISA was whipped out, to the satisfaction of some Malays, but now Malaysians of all colours and creeds from are upset, even pro-establishment ones!

Perhaps its time to remind Pak Lah and co that the ISA was not meant to be an instrument of power, but one of peace... and perhaps there is insufficient wisdom for this government in particular to be wielding it.

This just adds to the reason why Pak Lah should resign. Then perhaps we can have a leader that would be able to more properly use the ISA. Then again, maybe we'll even have a leader that would be good enough to avoid the use of the ISA altogether!

Yang Berbudi Di Tinggal-Tinggalkan, Yang Membakar Kelambu Di Timang-Timangkan...

Sungguh menghairankan apabila dilihat perlakuan kepimpinan Pak Lah; Yang Berbudi (Tun Dr M) Di Tinggal-Tinggalkan, Yang Membakar Kelambu (Datuk Zaid Ibrahim) Di Timang-Timangkan...

Terlalu ramai masyarakat Melayu amnya dan ahli UMNO khususnya, tua mahupun muda, yang menyambut baik perletakkan jawatan Menteri di Jabatan Perdana Menteri yang bertanggungjawab perihal undang-undang tersebut. Malah yang tua ramai memang asalnya tidak setuju Zaid, setelah digantung kedudukan partinya kerana mengamalkan politik wang, diangkat menjadi Menteri, apatah lagi dalam hal undang-undang serta kehakiman!

Yang muda pula, walaupun ada yang pada awalnya mengagumi kelantangan suaranya, terlalu ramai kini merasa hambar akibat tindak-tanduk Zaid yang menghina Islam, Melayu dan Raja-Raja Melayu. Zaid tidak menghalang, malah menggalakkan supaya kedudukan mahkamah syariah dipersoalkan oleh Bar Council harbi. Dah lah tu, ada hati pulak nak tuntut perletakkan jawatan pemimpin UMNO seperti Tan Sri Muhyiddin yang lebih Melayu kelakuan darinya.

Maka begitu tenang rasanya hati bila pembakar kelambu seperti Datuk Zaid ini dengan sendirinya mahu berundur.

Tetapi apakah ini? Kenapakah Pak Lah MENOLAK perletakkan jawatan Zaid? Bagi cuti pulak tu! Katanya supaya Zaid boleh memikirkan semula niat perletakkan jawatannya. Amende ni? Kata nak dia kekal kerja, tetapi bagi cuti! Kenapakah Datuk Zaid ini dimanjakan sebegitu sekali? Pak Lah memerlukan sangat ka pencalonan darinya kalau beliau menang sebagai Ketua Bahagian Kota Bharu?

Yang merunsingkan kaum muda lagi adalah, kenapakah Pak Lah masih belum mengadakan mesyuarat khas MKT untuk mengaktifkan semula keahlian Tun Dr Mahathir? Takkanlah orang berbudi macam Tun pun kena tunggu borang lagi?! Malah, atas dasar mengagumi kesetiaan mereka, MKT sepatutnya mengaktifkan semula SEMUA ahli yang meletakkan jawatan bersama-sama dengan Tun! Yang Datuk Zaid boleh pulak dibuat manja...

Masih Melayukah, masih Islamkah kepimpinan Pak Lah kalau begini perlakuannya? Wallahualam...

Keguguran/Miscarriage...

Kami mengalami keguguran anak tempohari. Pada hari Sabtu, O&G Specialist isteri saya mengesahkan apa yang kami dah teragak-agak sudah berlaku. Isteri saya dimasukkan ke hospital untuk menjalankan pembuangan kepalan darah sisa guguran tersebut dari rahim bagi mengelakkan infeksi.

Alhamdulillah, isteri saya selamat menjalani rawatan dan walaupun kelihatan lemah dalam sihat, terdengar ceria sambil diurut pantang sebentar tadi.

Kami tidak pun merancang, malah sebelum ni yang dah sampai 5 orang tak terancang pun, namun hiba sedikit tetap ada, walaupun doktor menasihati yang tidak sempat pun jasad membentuk. Jelas bukan rezeki kami kali ini. Kami bersyukur sahajalah kepada Ilahi serta menerima hikmah dari kejadian ini.

My boss presented an interesting perspective too, in that if the baby did not form, it was probably for the best, as it was better that he/she not survive rather than arrive incomplete. I would know no better and hope not ever to know...

I kept away from the blog/sms war that has erupted in earnest since late last week to focus on this as personal is not the same as important. I'm back...

Sin Chew Patut Digantung Lesen? Apa Yang Dilaporkan Sebenarnya Tentang Kata-Kata Ahmad Ismail?

Akhbar Sin Chew Jit Poh merupakan pencetus kontroversi kata-kata 'pendatang' oleh Datuk Ahmad Ismail. Terlihat Sin Chew sahaja melaporkan kata-kata yang dikatakan menghina pada ucapan beliau, padahal ada wartawan dari sekurang-kurangnya 2 lagi akhbar lain hadir ke majlis tersebut.

Sebagai seorang pemerhati, saya hairan yang akhbar Sin Chew tidak pernah mempertahankan dirinya dengan mengulang-cetak 3 perenggan ucapan Datuk Ahmad yang dibilang berunsur perkauman tersebut. Yang diulang-ulang cuma perkataan 'pendatang' dan anggapan kata-kata tersebut disebut dalam konteks perkauman yang menghina kedudukan masyarakat Cina Malaysia.

Sin Chew juga berulang kali menyatakan Datuk Ahmad hanya mula membantah dan menafikan apa yang ditulis setelah lebih seminggu edisi akhbar tersebut diterbitkan. Tak terfikirkan Sin Chew, masyarakat Cina mahupun rakyat Malaysia, yang Datuk Ahmad mungkin tidak pun tahu apa yang dicetak kerana beliau tidak dapat membaca laporan akhbar berbahasa Cina tersebut? Tak tahu pula saya kalau beliau tahu membaca bahasa Cina, tetapi setahu saya tidak.

Mungkin juga Datuk Ahmad telah difahamkan apa yang dicetak beberapa hari sebelum kenyataan akhbarnya yang pertama, tetapi memilih untuk berdiam diri. Ini dengan harapan api perkauman yang dicanang terus oleh pemimpin Cina dan juga akhbar seperti Sin Chew reda. Lojik juga andaian ini, kerana sebagai seorang pemimpin UMNO yang sedia berbudi memenangkan ADUN dan wakil rakyat Cina di semua kerusi di Bukit Bendera, beliau mestilah berkawan Cina.

Ternyata beliau terpaksa memberi kenyataan hanya selepas penjelasan kekesalan UMNO oleh Datuk Seri Najib ditolak oleh pemimpin Cina. Pada masa itulah beliau bangun menjelaskan yang intipati ucapannya telah disalah-tafsirkan. Datuk Ahmad jelas menuding jari kearah wartawan Sin Chew pelapor perkara yang tidak dilaporkan oleh wartawan akhbar lain.

Akhbar Sin Chew kemudian menafikan kenyataan Datuk Ahmad yang ucapannya disalah-tafsirkan. Tetapi yang menghairankan saya, Sin Chew tidak membuktikan penafian mereka dengan mengalih-bahasakan apa yang mereka cetak ke Bahasa Melayu mahupun Bahasa Inggeris untuk dikongsi dengan majoriti masyarakat Malaysia yang tidak memahami tulisan bahasa Cina. Malah Sin Chew mengolah kata-kata dan tindakan DS Najib untuk dijadikan sebagai bukti!

Kononnya, kerana DS Najib juga hadir di majlis di mana Datuk Ahmad Ismail memberi ucapan dan mendengar ungkapan tersebut, pasti DS Najib memohon maaf kerana beliau sendiri berpendapat yang Datuk Ahmad bercakap melampaui batas. Padahal, DS Najib tak meminta maaf pun atas apa yang dikatakan Datuk Ahmad Ismail, cuma sekiranya apa yang dikatakan menyingung perasaan! Malah, ada kemungkinan DS Najib sendiri setuju dengan apa yang diutarakan!

Namun yang membingungkan saya adalah, kenapakan Sin Chew begitu berputar belit dalam hujahnya apabila menyerang Datuk Ahmad Ismail? Kenapa tidak diwar-warkan sahaja bahagian ucapan yang menimbulkan kontroversi ini, kali ini dalam bahasa Melayu dan Inggeris, supaya rakyat Malaysia semua dapat menilai sendiri sama ada betul apa dikatakan keterlaluan, atau sebenarnya isu ini sengaja dipermainkan dengan niat yang jahat, atau mungkin betul Cina sensitif?

Tetapi akhbar Sin Chew harus waspada, sekiranya apa yang dicetak sebagai kata-kata Datuk Ahmad Ismail sebenarnya sama ada tidak keterlaluan mahupun senang disalah-tafsirkan atau lebih teruk, salah sama sekali menurut saksi yang hadir di majlis itu, mungkin sekali yang digantung bukan Datuk Ahmad Ismail, tetapi akhbar Sin Chew sendiri!

Datuk Ahmad akan 'survive' pergantungan 3 tahun dengan mudah, malah mungkin kembali ke UMNO sebagai hero pembela sejarah kedudukan Melayu, penduduk asal Malaysia. Tetapi mampukah akhbar Sin Chew 'survive' pergantungan lesen selama itu?

Lihat sendirilah dakyah tidak seimbang Sin Chew dalam pernilaian ini. Yang ini mahu pulak di alih-bahasakan, malah ditulis langsung, dalam bahasa Inggeris!

MKT UMNO Pimpinan Pak Lah Tidak Lagi Mengutamakan Kepentingan Melayu?

Nampak gaya MKT UMNO bukan lagi Melayu yang punya. Nampak gaya seperti tak terlayan pun isu kemasukan semula Tun Dr M ke UMNO. Malah, Datuk Ahmad Ismail seolah-olah dizalimi sekali dengan digantung 3 tahun oleh MKT selepas perbincangan selama 3 jam!

3 JAM TAK CUKUP UNTUK MENERIMA SEMULA TUN DR M KA?!

3 JAM DAN AGENDA BANGSA LAIN DIBINCANGKAN SAHAJA?!

Tetapi jangan bimbang Datuk Ahmad Ismail. Menurut trend Pak Lah, kalau dah digantung tu, sekiranya Datuk terus lantang, ada peluang dilantik Menteri! Tak percaya, tanya Dato' Zaid Ibrahim...

Adakah kemungkinan digantung oleh UMNO atau setidak-tidaknya dilayan buruk oleh MKT pimpinan Pak Lah apabila mempertahankan hak dan sejarah Melayu itu boleh menjadi sumber kebanggaan. OK-lah kalau macam itu, mari kita ahli UMNO beramai-ramai terus membincangkan isu 'pendatang' ini dengan lantang sekali bakal menggantikan suara lantang Datuk Ahmad Ismail yang sudah digantung.

Busuk-busuk pun, MKT Pak Lah gantung kita pulak! Bangga betui la ...

Kemaskini 1...

Seorang pemberi komentar kruel telah mengutara tuduhan tersirat yang Datuk Ahmad Ismail bersekongkong dengan Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim untuk memporak-perandakan BN menjelang 16 September 2008. Begini maklum-balas saya (diubah-suai sedikit dari segi bahasa dan penambahan perisian):

Melayar blog tersebut, boleh dikatakan kemungkinan Datuk Ahmad Ismail masih bertindak untuk Anwar Ibrahim itu ada. Tetapi kita juga harus sedar, pada suatu masa dahulu, majoriti ahli UMNO juga penyokong Anwar, termasuklah Tun Dr M sendiri. Tetapi kita tidak boleh membuat andaian beliau masih menyokong Anwar berdasarkan sejarah silam, fakta tidak mencukupi dan berbaur fitnah jadinya. Lagipun ini tidak penting!

Kalaupun Ahmad bersekongkong dengan Anwar hingga kini, ini tidak bermakna MKT UMNO bertindak wajar dengan penggantungnya. Kes hasutan Ahmad masih di bawah siasatan polis, maka itu boleh dijadikan helah untuk setidak-tidaknya menunda tindakan sehingga ia selesai. Dan kenapakah ia tidak dirujuk ke Jawatankuasa Disiplin UMNO dahulu?

Sekiranya Pak Lah ingin sangat menunjukkan keprihatinan UMNO, kenakan hukuman tertunda atau 'suspended sentence' pun jadilah. Ini akan memberikan kita masa untuk pernilaian sebenar dibuat dengan saksama dan bermaruah.

Yang lebih penting untuk Melayu adalah kembalinya Tun Dr M ke pangkuan. Maka kenapakah pengembalian Tun ke UMNO tidak diutamakan sebelum hal ini? Ini parti siapa? Tindakan MKT melambatkan ketibaan Tun Dr M ke pangkuan tidak mengutamakan Melayu langsung!

Dan nampak gaya, keamanan yang konon diharapkan oleh tindakan MKT pun belum tiba. Gerakan dan MCA pun masih cengil... konon hukuman ke atas Datuk Ahmad tak cukup beratlah dan belum mahu menyambung tali silaturahim dengan UMNO Pulau Pinang lagi! Buat malu UMNO dan orang Melayu sahaja!

Antara Ahmad Ismail, Tun Dr Mahathir Dan Ezam Mohd. Nor

Hari ini akan berlangsung mesyuarat tergempar Majlis Tertinggi UMNO dengan agenda utamanya untuk menangani isu kenyataan Datuk Ahmad Ismail yang kononnya berbaur perkauman. Menarik sekali, isu tersebut bukanlah yang terpenting untuk ditangani oleh Pak Lah dan ahli MKT UMNO pada hari ini.

Saya bukan berniat menyinggung perasaan di sini, tetapi amnya, masyarakat Melayu tidaklah begitu mementingkan isu kenyataan Datuk Ahmad Ismail buat masa ini. Ini kerana kami pernah mendengar kenyataan dan perbuatan yang lebih berbaur perkauman dari pemimpin-pemimpin semua parti, baik BN mahupun bukan BN, di Malaysia. Perbezaannya, orang Melayu amnya tidaklah sesensitif kaum Cina.

Tengok sahajalah bagaimana orang Melayu tak berapa kisah pun tentang penghinaan yang dihamburkan kepada kami yang kononnya mensia-siakan DEB. Orang Melayu juga tak berapa kisah apabila seorang anak Cina yang mempermainkan azan dan lagu Negaraku betapa dipertahankan perbuatannya oleh pemimpin Cina. Malah bila Islam dipertikaikan kedudukannya, kami tetap sabar menangkis segala usaha dan dakyah dengan emosi yang ala kadar sahaja.

Di internet, rata-rata sentimen anti-Melayu meleluasa, seperti persoalan yang sering ditimbulkan tentang sama ada Melayu benar-benar penduduk 'asal' Malaysia. Kami tak menuntut maaf kerana kesedaran bahawa wujudnya tamadun Melayu di Semenanjung ini sejak sebelum Masihi lagi. Malah, bila dibilang hero ulung Melayu Hang Tuah itu sebenarnya seorang Cina sekalipun, kami tak marah

Ini pun belum masuk cerita Hindraf lagi, yang menuduh Melayu pembunuh, penyamun, penyeleweng dan macam-macam lagi! Diraikan pula pemimpin Hindraf sehingga sekarang ada yang dah jadi wakil rakyat hasil tuntunan undi bukan Melayu... dan juga Melayu! Begitu pemaaf sekali Melayu!

Jadi orang Melayu amnya mungkin hairan sedikit dengan kemarahan yang ditujukan terhadap Ahmad Ismail oleh kaum Cina. Ada juga yang terkilan kerana ada pula pemimpin Melayu yang merasakan perlunya UMNO meminta maaf atau menyatakan kekesalan tentang kenyataan ini. Namun kepada orang Melayu, isu Ahmad Ismail bukanlah isu terpenting yang harus ditangani MKT UMNO hari ini.

Lebih penting bagi orang Melayu amnya, dan ahli-ahli UMNO khususnya, MKT UMNO haruslah meluluskan kemasukan semula Tun Dr Mahathir ke dalam UMNO hari ini. Tak perlulah MKT menunggu borang permohonan keahlian Tun Dr M. Benarkan sahaja pendaftaran Tun Dr M di Cawangan beliau dihidupkan semula. Semalam Tan Sri Muhyiddin sudah pun menyatakan persetujuan Tun untuk kembali ke pangkuan UMNO. Nah, tunggu apa lagi!

Inilah masanya Pak Lah dan kepimpinan UMNO menunjukkan budi-bahasa mereka terhadap pemimpin Melayu yang berjasa. Setidak-tidaknya, keinginan Tun Dr Mahathir untuk kembali ke UMNO haruslah diraikan dengan lebih semangat dari penerimaan semula Ezam Mohd. Nor tempohari.

Ezam, yang bukan sekadar meninggalkan UMNO, tetapi memburuk-burukan kepimpinan negara di Indonesia, memecah-belahkan lagi Melayu melalui PKR dan menghambur hina merata-rata dengan NGO-nya begitu diraikan kembalinya dahulu. Maka wajiblah MKT UMNO menyambut kepulangan Tun Dr M dengan lebih hebat lagi! Si Ezam bekas musuh perosak bangsa manakala Tun Dr M penabur budi dan pejuang Agama, Bangsa dan Tanah Air!

Maka di sini ingin saya rakamkan harapan ramai ahli muda UMNO yang kerdil ini supaya MKT mengutamakan kepentingan Melayu hari ini. Utamakanlah pengembalian pendekar Melayu ulung lagi berjasa kita, Tun Dr Mahathir, ke pangkuan UMNO sebelum kehendak kaum lain dilayani dengan apa-apa keputusan terhadap Datuk Ahmad Ismail.

Kemaskini 1...

Diharap pelayar halaman ini juga sudi membaca sendiri kenyataan akhbar Datuk Ahmad Ismail tentang isu yang membabitkannya, samada dengan ringkas atau yang berkait dengan pelbagai kenyataan dan pendapat lain. Lihat sahajalah betapa remehnya isu kenyataan Datuk Ahmad Ismail yang diwar-warkan oleh orang bukan Melayu. Padahal beliau pernah berjasa besar kepada mereka dahulu! Jelas pemimpin Melayu patut mengutamakan kepentingan Melayu dahulu!

Kemaskini 2...

Nampak MKT UMNO bukan lagi Melayu punya. Nampak seperti tak terlayan pun isu kemasukan semula Tun Dr M ke UMNO. Malah, Datuk Ahmad Ismail dizalimi sekali dengan digantung 3 tahun oleh MKT selepas perbincangan selama 3 jam!

3 JAM TAK CUKUP UNTUK MENERIMA SEMULA TUN DR M KA?!

3 JAM DAN AGENDA BANGSA LAIN DIBINCANGKAN SAHAJA?!

Tetapi jangan bimbang Datuk Ahmad Ismail. Menurut trend Pak Lah, kalau dah digantung tu, sekiranya Datuk terus lantang, ada peluang dilantik Menteri! Tak percaya, tanya Dato' Zaid Ibrahim...

Tun Dr M Akan Menyertai Semula UMNO Untuk Menyokong Usaha KuLi Merebut Jawatan Presiden UMNO

Ingin saya memberi pengesahan di sini bahawa khabar angin yang kini tersebar melalui sms yang Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad akan menyertai kembali UMNO tidak lama lagi untuk menyokong usaha KuLi merebut jawatan Presiden UMNO Disember ini adalah berita yang sahih.

Untuk memastikan kesahihan berita ini, silalah sujuk kepada dua orang bekas Setiausaha Agong UMNO, Tan Sri Sanusi Junid dan Tan Sri Sabaruddin Chik. Niat kembalinya semula Tun Dr M ke UMNO ikhlas, untuk menyelamatkan negara dari ancaman kelembapan berterusan kepimpinan Pak Lah.

Soalnya sekarang, adakah kepimpinan UMNO akan dengan ikhlas menerima kembalinya Tun Dr M? Atau adakah pelbagai halangan dan 'spin' baru yang akan menjelma? Walau dalam bulan Ramadhan Mubarak? Kita saksikanlah nanti...

Kemaskini 1...

Desas-desus menyatakan yang Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin terlibat dalam usaha mengembalikan Tun Dr M ke pangkuan UMNO. Sekiranya benar, sudah tentu ia akan memperkuatkan kedudukan TS Muhyiddin untuk merebut apa-apa jawatan sekalipun dalam pemilihan UMNO kelak.

Menarik juga maklum-balas sms yang menyatakan pertandingan Presiden UMNO pada Disember ini mungkin sekali antara KuLi dan Najib. Bicara kegentingan UMNO selesai PRK Permatang Pauh tempohari, disusuli tindakan kepimpinan Bahagian-Bahagian UMNO Pulau Pinang mempertahankan kedudukan Dato' Ahmad Ismail dengan sinis membisik penolakan kepimpinan Pak Lah.

Persoalan kedua, mampukah 'hujan kain pelekat' yang pasti akan datang menyelamatkan Pak Lah sekarang?

Kemaskini 2...

Usaha Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim merebut kuasa menjelang 16 September adalah antara pemangkinkan usaha mengembalikan Tun Dr M ke UMNO. Ternyata Tun Dr M lebih berupaya menangkis dakyah Anwar dari kepimpinan sekarang. Antara sorotan yang membimbangkan masyarakat Melayu, baik UMNO, PAS mahupun berkecuali adalah kemungkinan kerajaan Anwar bermajoriti bukan Melayu dan bukan Islam!

Ramadhan

It's been a few days into Ramadhan and I find myself reflecting how it was the last time. Last Ramadhan, I took advantage of the Malay political tradition of toning it down during the holy month to stop blogging for awhile and reflect upon what I wanted to achieve. This was partly due to feedback from my wife that some of my writting was taking on an unnecessaryly nasty edge then.

I find myself more comfortable with my writing these days, and whilst frustration does lead me to stray towards the overly nasty on occassion, and my wife still wants me to reign in some of the more personal references, the break was useful. I am keen on feedback other than my wife's though on whether there are areas that I can improve, so please comment on this if you are so inclined.

And finally, I hope Muslims will take the opportunity during this holy month to pray for the salvation of our country, our nation and the ummah. For in the end, it is Allah who chooses our leaders and it is through His grace that these leaders are enlightened. We are both instruments and beneficiaries of what Allah deems worthy for us to experience in this world and the next...

He gave us Tun Dr M with all that it entails, Alhamdulillah...

He gave us Pak Lah with all that entails, including perhaps some late awareness of what we gave up when too many of us sighed relief at Tun Dr M's retirement... so however painful, Alhamdulillah...

May Allah provide us with more of the positives or the former and latter and none of the negatives of either... unless He deems the negatives to be best for us...

Wallahualam...

What Will Happen On 16 September 2008 - A Scenario

I'm sick of being asked whether Anwar Ibrahim really will take over as PM leading a Pakatan Rakyat government on 16 September 2008. Hence, as part of my effort to retain calm over Ramadhan, I wish to record here my theory.

On 16 September 2008, the Parliament will be closed for its Ramadhan break. Hence, any change of government through a dramatic 'crossing the Parliament floor' followed by a vote-of-no-confidence of the present government, or vice versa, will not happen. Don't believe me, check out this foreign press report... which does provide a bizzare way out, which I will ignore for now... :-)

So, what will happen on 16 September 2008? Well, one theory is that Anwar will claim that he said 16 September, but didn't declare which year! But this would not be wise, especially as the rumour mill has reached frenzied levels. Last I heard, Anwar already has a new cabinet line-up, which would includes even UMNO 'reformists' like Zaid Ibrahim, forgetting of course that Zaid is not an MP and would not be able to help Anwar seize power in the first place!

So, what do I think will happen? I think on 16 September 2008:

1. Pak Lah will declare that PKR has just joined the Barisan Nasional coalition, thus restoring its 2/3 majority in Parliament.


2. Pak Lah will also declare that all is forgiven and that Anwar, who if I'm not mistaken is not yet a member of PKR, will be joining UMNO.


3. Anwar will then take the stage and declare that he has decided the best way to reform government is from the inside. He will then declare his support for Pak Lah's efforts in cleaning up government and that he will be contesting for the Deputy Presidency of UMNO.

This I think is a far more realistic scenario that Anwar cobbling together a coalition with PAS (with its Islamic State agenda), DAP (with its secular Malaysian Malaysia agenda) and a bunch of BN cross-overs, almost certainly 'bought over' by promises of positions and all sorts of loot! Anwar could then only rely on PKR's loyalty as PKR's only agenda is to restore Anwar to power anyway.

By having PKR join BN, Anwar will have achieved his goal of returning to UMNO whilst keeping a weapon still firmly held at BN's throat. Anwar can then contest for whatever post he wants as the 'saviour' of UMNO. He might even forget about contesting against Najib and go after Pak Lah's post directly! Pak Lah may even concede! And KJ, being such an Anwarista, would happily oblige...

After all, besides bringing Anwar his new passport personally some years ago, didn't KJ also help bring Anwar back to power by:

1. Convincing Pak Lah to announce PRU12 on 8 March 2008 despite advice from all the intelligence services that BN would lose its 2/3 majority and some key state to the opposition.


2. Modifying the BN PRU12 candidates' list such as to sabotage the electability of the party in some key constituencies.


3. Actually going campaigning in marginal seats, especially where Anwar's key opposition allies were candidates. I've heard at least a couple of times how candidates complained that their campaigns were going well until KJ came with his convoy of SUVs and antagonised the voters with his pomp and arrogance; i.e. sabotaging their campaign!


4. Finally killing the BN campaign in Permatang Pauh with his 'kuburkan Anwar' speech. Permatang Pauh was headed for a reduced majority for Anwar until KJ, Ezam and Nalla arrived. It's been estimate that BN lost between 2,000 to 5,000 votes due to that speech!


5. And one musn't forget that this wouldn't be KJ's first attempt to bring Anwar back. If things went to plan, PKR would have won Ijok last year and Anwar would have been in UMNO already, and perhaps even with a royal pardon in hand! But Samy Vellu was still credible to the Indians then...

So, Anwar back in UMNO on 16 September... I'm imagining how I'd react if this scenario does come to pass...

Censorship... Not Just The Government's...

There is news of censorship by the government of the internet, specifically the Malaysia-Today 'news' portal. Not sure if the site is still censored, but I managed to get in earlier. Maybe the idiots at MCMC flip-floped... or maybe KJ's cousin, the MCMC's minister, Shaziman did... "Kepimpinan Melalui Teladan"... Pet's quick setting up of a mirror site must have helped.

As usual, the current government, especially the young and increasingly unpopular Shaziman has myopically taken an indecisive politically motivated action that damages the nation... that is what Lah-ism is after all. Yet again, we have been Badawi-ed, this time on internet censorship.

Just want to make one observation though. Whilst I have no problem with Jeff and Rocky commenting and criticising censorship, since they famously do not censor their sites unless the stuff posted is inappropriate, I do have issue with some anti-BN sites' who would be hypocrites if they choose to complain. For instance, Malaysia-Today itself, since PRU-12, has been practicing censorship of comments. I've experienced this in a few others sites.

Their right to censor their sites, I do some to ensure relevancy of comments for instance. But whilst I disagree with the government's censorship of the internet, I find it richly hypocritical for some other bloggers to make a big deal of it if they themselves are censoring views they disagree with on their sites....

I Know They Aren't Permanent, But I'll Have My Crutches For Now Thank You, They're For My Kids...

I found the blogger Aisehman para-phrasing Tun Dr M's posting on affirmative action (i.e. DEB) in his blog with some unwarranted bias. As Aisehman did not see it fit to publish my comment on Ramlang Porigi's claims over Saiful's 'sumpah' before (maybe I didn't do it properly technically... and it is his right to censor), I thought it best to just repeat my comment to his recent posting here:

I'm afraid you are reading and para-phrasing Tun as you wish Aisehman. Whilst Tun was indicating that the DEB is not meant to be permanent, he is neither saying that it is no longer working nor is he saying it is no longer relevant. The pace is what he laments and more so the changing attitude of Malays towards the DEB.

Easy test to see if Malays and Bumis are ready to compete at equal terms, i.e. we have the RESOURCES to do so, is by looking at local private tertiary education (IPTS). Do you see even 10% of Malays in IPTS'? As only 55% out of the 60+% Malay demographic are in IPTAs now, where are the other Malays? Can't say they're too stupid to go to IPTS, its racist, and if Malays were rich enough, they'd still be able to send even their dumb kids to IPTS.

The Malays are not in IPTS' because they still by and large can't afford it. And unfortunately, ads like the recent Petronas Merdeka ad featuring Aiman, obviously (the filming) involving Malays with a middle-class upwards background, continue to delude some Malays that rural Malays can 'fund' their 'easily motivated' 'few' kids to higher education.

Has DEB succeeded? Yes. Does it need a revamp? Yes. Does this mean scrapping it? Hell no! Malays that are deluded in thinking it courageous to say we do not need 'crutches' anymore do so because they fear to do the even more courageous thing, admit that we still DO need said crutches. I say so, as I do not wish to see my kids be part of a future generation of Malays that find themselves left behind as second class citizens among the diversity that is Malaysia.

But of course, we need to be constructive about this. I'm putting some ideas together on ways forward for the DEB here:
http://thoughtsintangents.blogspot.com/2008/08/cadangan-30-kuota-melayu-bumiputra-di.html

Join me?

September 16, Here We Come! Clearly It's The Economy, Silly!

Much as expected, and despite an increasing number of Malays, even among the voters in his constituency (30+% now!), believing Anwar did 'do it' to Saiful, the man still won in Permatang Pauh with an increased majority! One can't really blame demographics too much as the electoral roll would be the same, and the win is so comprehensive, it is unlikely the trends between groups (race, age, etc) would shift much either.

To put it plainly, even as more people believe Anwar is a Homosexual Rapist, and more are discomfited with PKR's increasing politics of fear, and more begin to question the giving away their constitutional rights as Malays and Muslims, THEY STILL DON'T WANT PAK LAH AS PM!

MALAYSIANS WOULD RATHER HAVE A CORRUPT, TRAITOROUS, VIOLENCE INCITING RAPIST AS PM RATHER THAN PAK LAH!

So Pak Lah, even the people of your home state has again demostrated that they still hate you... actually, they now hate you even more than in March when they gave Penang to DAP and even voted against your relative Dato Noraesah from winning one of the safest UMNO MP seats in the country, Balik Pulau!

So Pak Lah, are you going to declare "KITA MENANG!" again now? Is it possible that you could try to do something so silly yet again? We are waiting for your response to the whole debacle, which true to form, you and your cohorts will surely blame Najib for.

So Pak Lah, when was it again you said you were leaving? 2010? Sudah Lah Pak Lah... better leave now Lah. The people didn't care that Anwar could be a sodomite. They were going to choose Anwar because anyone could manage the economy better than Pak Lah... even the man who failed in 1998! People are willing to give Anwar another chance at the economy rather than have it mucked up some more by Lah-ism... the art of indecisively making the wrong decisions!

I still think 16 September is a pipe dream for Anwar. But we can't wait till 2010 for Pak Lah to go, let alone for an alternative to take over in 2013! Berundur Lah...

The Politics Of Fear... Not A Monopoly In Malaysia

I was at Bukit Merah for a break with the family and on my wife's prompting, we took a detour north to see how things were at Permatang Pauh over the by-election campaign weekend. This write-up is not so much about what we saw, but more about the emotive elements that I have been observing over this by-election, which I am concerned may be symptomatic.

The idea of us at least doing a drive-through of Permatang Pauh over the school break was not really new. I had an open invitation by an UMNO Ketua Pemuda to join him on campaign and I was 'made aware' of KuLi's visit on Saturday. However, each invitation was laced with a cautionary notes such as:

1. Don't bring your car, or at least bring your old Waja, not your MPV, as hooligans have been throwing stones and scratching cars of BN campaigners.


2. It may not be safe for you to bring your family along on the visit, even if you are just passing through.


3. We are staying at so and so place, and you're welcomed to bunk in with us. All the hotels are booked up. If you wish to just 'tumpang', watch out where you go. Some mosques may be full of the hooligans camping out.


4. Your sure you really want to go ka? Is it worth the trouble you may get into there? Consider this carefully before you go...

It used to be that UMNO internal elections were more viscious than Parliamentary ones, and it hardly ever got physical, but supposedly things have changed. I thought this was all a load of crock as I had fond memories of joining election campaigns even when I was a child, so we went to Permatang Pauh anyway.

What greeted us was very much what I expected, a massive poster war going on, campaigners milling about, especially in local gathering spots like Kedai Kopi's, and local folk, trying to live their normal lives through the greater excitement. There did not appear to be any outwardly menacing indicators, other than the rather aggressive, and in some cases, excesively negative campaign materiel.

Nevertheless...

Our son needed the toilet and we stopped at a kedai kopi along a road that dead-ended at a Malay kampung. The area was clearly PKR dominated, Permatang Pauh is Anwar's hometown after all, and we could see party volunteers chatting up the locals at the kedai kopi. My wife took my boy in whilst I stayed in the car with the other kids. Nothing happened, but I couldn't help feeling unsettled...

Unlike in Langkawi, Kuala Kedah or back in KL, where I would be happy to jump into a partisan anti-UMNO crowd of followers and engage in conversation of the provocative type, something stopped me from doing the same that day. I could not blame the advice of others or my wife's own nervousness of my driving an MPV into Permatang Pauh with a pro-Tun Dr M car sticker at the back for spooking me. It was something else...

To say Permatang Pauh is Anwar's stronghold or even his kampung would be belittling the importance of the contest to his political life. For Anwar, Permatang Pauh has been a symbol of his enduring survival as a politician. The only constituency that never forgot nor abandoned him, even when the rest of the country was willing to give the new guy a chance in PRU-11, then consigning Anwar to history. Had Permatang Pauh chosen BN in 2004...

So Permatang Pauh as Anwar's choice for a return to Parliament was both a surprise and not so. Not a surprise as it is where he is most likely to win, but not so as he would certainly be returned to his political grave if he is beaten there. This is why it would have been dangerous for any smart aleck pro-Mahathir UMNO member to go lone-campaigner in a middle of rural Anwar-ville. It may have gained me some experience, but for Anwar and his people, it is about survival.

Nevertheless...

So I was actually quite unsurprised to see the claims by one of the four imams who witnessed Saiful's confession that the Quran-swearing was invalid and ingenuine. I was unsurprised as the imam Ramlang Porigi was from the area, nigh 'se-kampung' with Anwar. And of course Ramlang Porigi came forward voluntarily. He had to. You only need to hear the language of his 'expose' to realise why:

1. "...he had not conspired with anyone in relation to Saiful’s ’swearing on the Qur’an’ episode."


2. "...he was now facing attacks."


3. "...he had nothing to do with the preparation of the text of that which Saiful uttered..."


4. "...he asked that the people of Permatang Pauh would not fault him for this entire episode."

Ramlang Porigi was afraid. Assuming he, as a religious man, was speaking sincerely, that does not detract from the fact that the language he used begged to be excused and forgiven by his kampung folk for 'betraying' their local hero, Anwar Ibrahim. That Ramlang Porigi was brave is not an issue, he was trying to survive and retain his license to come back to his kampung without being harassed for his involvement in the Saiful Quran-swearing event.

One must be sympathetic of the position Ramlang was put in. He made clear that he did not ask to be involved in these events, he was doing his job. But certainly it must have been most painful for him to have been exposed as one involved, as he would have been 'attacked' not just by anonymous Anwaristas on the web, but by his kampung folk, family members even!

Nevertheless...

There has always been an undercurrent of fanatacism surrounding Anwar that brings discomfort to many. One recalled his fiery days as a student leader, then youth activist. And even whilst he wraped himself with civility in government and helped re-draw the AUKU act, that would curtail the rise of another like him, he always has others around him who would attack when needed. Remember the Anwarista led UMNO Youth attack on anti-Burma junta protesters in the 1990's?

I was unsurprised at his reaction to removal from government in the late 90's. I am somewhat unsurprised at the type of emotions, fanatacism and actions he is inciting now. If anything, the added vitriol in his rhetoric following Saiful's allegations are also consistent with his past behaviour. The man attacks when cornered, especially when it is a matter of his survival. And when he attacks, his loyal followers attack with him.

Nevertheless...

I remain stunned that Malaysians have turned a blind eye to this naked, very un-Malaysian aggression that underlies Anwar's on-going, unrelenting quest for power. There are parallels that anti-UMNO folk wish to draw between Ketuanan Melayu and Nazism, though they conveniently turn a blind eye to the parallels between Anwar's and Hitler's rise to power!

As a student of history, the parallels are unmistakable. Both Anwar and Hitler were early under-achievers, rising in politics through aggressive social activism, one bordering, the other actual in perpetrating violence. Both cut down to size in their early prime, surviving, then rising again, to the point of leading a populist, yet minority grouping in Parliament. The parallels are not exact, but enough to scare. Add to that Hitler's early popularity abroad as a saviour of Germany...

Violence and aggression has never been the Malaysian way. And it seems in our desparation for a change in leadership, much as the Germans were desparate in the early 1930's, too many of us are turning to Anwar as a saviour whilst blinded of the pitfalls by the troubles of Pak Lah. Are we sure Anwar is the saviour of the nation? Or is he another for us to regret and lament trusting later?

The one Anwar-Hitler parallel that is also apparent to me from events of late, news and private, is the propensity to incite fanatical aggression and violence. We should just be grateful that Malaysians are a generally more peaceful lot.

Nevertheless... the politics of fear is not a monopoly in Malaysia...

Cadangan 30% Kuota Melayu & Bumiputra Di IPTS Dipanjangkan - Bab 1

Menarik sekali reaksi kepada cadangan saya untuk mengenakan kuota minima 30% Melayu dan Bumiputra di Institusi Pengajian Tinggi Swasta (IPTS), baik menerusi blog, e-mail mahupun sms. Reaksi kelihatan terbahagi 3 pihak:

1. Reaksi Majoriti Kawan-Kawan Dalam UMNO: Memang amnya bersetuju tanpa persoalan. Yang ini tak perlulah saya ulas lagi, sebab dah sesuai dengan naluri UMNO memperjuangkan hak Melayu walau kelihatan ekstrim.


2. Reaksi sekumpulan pemimpin UMNO dan juga pengkritik, amnya meminta usul dipanjangkan sedikit kerana cadangan kelihatan terlalu ringkas dan mungkin cetek intipatinya. Ini saya akui kerana untuk dimuatkan dalam sms; akan saya panjangkan lagi di sini.


3. Reaksi kumpulan yang merasakan 'Melayu tak perlu kuota lagi', 'Melayu dah cukup pandai' dan 'Lebih baik dibenarkan Melayu bersaing secara terbuka'. Mungkin ini juga pendapat yang sebenarnya dipegang oleh Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim apabila beliau mengemukakan ide memberi kuota 20% kemasukan bukan Melayu ke UITM sewaktu berkempen untuk undi kaum Cina di Permatang Pauh.

Ingin saya tangani dahulu Reaksi 3. Walaupun saya setuju ramai orang Melayu dan Bumiputra yang cukup mantap perisian awal pendidikannya sehingga boleh bersaing dengan pelajar bukan Bumiputra, ini amnya merangkumi anak-anak keluarga berkelas menengah (middle class) ke atas yang lazimnya bermastautin di bandar atau sesetengah pekan besar.

Kalau dilihat secara menyeluruh, terlalu ramai Bumiputra, baik di luar bandar mahupun dari kalangan miskin di kota (urban poor) yang perisian pendidikannya masih belum cukup untuk bersaing secara langsung dengan pelajar bukan Bumiputra. Ini bukan sebab kurangnya kebolehan minda Bumiputra, tetapi hasil terbatas peransangan fikiran kerana pendapatan keluarga tak cukup untuk membiayai buku-buku, komputer, aktiviti pelajaran luar sekolah dan sebagainya.

Faktor budaya antara kelas pendapatan juga suatu perkara yang mempengaruhi kebolehan bersaing. Amnya, anak-anak Melayu dan Bumiputra yang dimanfaatkan Dasar Ekonomi Baru (DEB), dan mungkin juga akan menghargai cadangan ini, tidak dapat mengalami budaya mengejar ilmu di rumah kerana situasi keluarga yang terperangkap dalam budaya rezeki kais pagi makan pagi, kais petang makan petang. Inilah sasaran DEB dan juga cadangan seumpama yang saya kemukakan.

Seorang pemberi komen blog menyatakan yang anak Bumiputra yang dilindung kuota umpama singa dikandang yang gemuk tetapi lemah berbanding anak seekor singa yang kurus di hutan. Masalahnya, perumpamaan itu kurang tepat, kerana anak-anak kita amnya singa yang tempang pada lahirnya, kerana kurang perisian pendidikan, yang bakal maut jika dilepas terus ke hutan. Harus dikandang dahulu sehingga sembuh tempangnya sebelum dilepas bersaing di belantara.

Sekarang kita bergerak ke Reaksi 2, yakni sama ada cadangan tersebut pada lahirnya terlalu cetek perisian untuk dibawa ke hadapan. Saya bersetuju yang cadangan ini haruslah diberikan sedikit lagi, dan saya mengatakan ini Bab 1 kerana mungkin dengan maklum-balas, boleh kita perincikan bersama.

Pertama, kenapa 30% kepada Melayu dan Bumiputra sahaja. Bangsa dan golongan lain tak ada yang miskinkah?

Saya memberi tumpuan kepada cadangan untuk kebaikan Melayu atas tanggungjawab saya sebagai seorang pemimpin akar-umbi Melayu. Tetapi saya juga menyolong jika ada yang mencadangkan kuota juga untuk kaum India - katalah 7% minima, berdasarkan demografi, sebab yang miskin tegar di kalangan kaum India pun ramai. Kalau nak berikan kepada kaum Cina susah sikitlah, sebab sebagai satu komuniti, mereka cukup kaya dan takkan lah nak perlu kuota!

Malah, apa kata kita adakah kuota lebih tinggi untuk IPTS di Sabah dan Sarawak, di mana miskin tegar Bumiputra pun terlalu ramai. 50%?

Dari segi praktiknya, bagaimanakah kuota 30% IPTS boleh dijadikan kenyataan?

Ini bukan perkara rumit. Kerajaan hanya perlu memasukan kuota tersebut sebagai syarat perlesenan IPTS dari tahun ke tahun. IPTS sendiri boleh usahakan dengan bank-bank untuk memberi pembiayaan pelajaran kepada pelajar mereka. Apa salahnya juga sekiranya PTPTN juga membenarkan pinjaman untuk ke IPTS. Tetapi PTPTN haruslah menghadkan bantuan supaya setara dengan pembayaran ke IPTA. Ya lah, takkan PTPTN nak tolong taukeh IPTS menjadi lagi kaya!

Menarik sekali, para pelajar Melayu dan Bumiputra akan didedahkan kepada pelbagai sumber kewangan untuk menyambung pelajaran atas usaha IPTS untuk mencapai kuota! Sumber tersebut mungkin tiada dalam fikiran pelajar tersebut sekarang kerana masalah budaya pembelajaran yang diperkatakan. Ini akan saya panjangkan lagi dalam Bab 2 Insya'Allah, memandangkan sudah ada maklum-balas tentang masalah ketidak-mampuan Bumiputra membayar yuran IPTS.

Tidakkah ini akan merugikan golongan bukan Bumiputra?

Tidak! Kerana menurut imbangan Pembekalan dan Permintaan atau 'Supply and Demand', sekiranya masih ada kehendak dari pihak yang mampu membiayai pendidikan ke IPTS dari golongan bukan Bukiputra, jumlah atau saiz IPTS tentu akan dikembangkan! Malah, cadangan ini mungkin memperkayakan lagi sistem pendidikan tahap universiti kita!

OK lah, akan saya sambung lagi selepas mendapat maklum-balas, Insya'Allah...

Cadangan Kuota Minimum 30% Pelajar Melayu & Bumiputra Di Semua Institusi Pengajian Tinggi Swasta

Berikut adalah draf sms saya kepada Ketua Biro Pendidikan Pemuda UMNO Malaysia.

Saudara Ahmad Ikmal. Bagi mengimbangi kedudukan kuota 55% Bumiputra sahaja di IPTA tempatan berbanding 45% bangsa lain & mengubat hati umat Melayu yg terluka hasil cadangan 10% kemasukan UITM dibuka kepada bukan-Melayu, ingin saya mencadangkan di sini Kuota Minimum 30% Pelajar Melayu & Bumiputra Di Semua Institusi Pengajian Tinggi Swasta, sesuai dengan prinsip Dasar Ekonomi Baru (DEB).

Memandangkan kedudukan & kelantangan suara saudara dalam isu-isu tersebut, saya percaya usul berikut bakal dibawa ke Perhimpunan Agung kelak & membuah hasil.

Ikhlas,
Akhramsyah Muammar Ubaidah bin Sanusi
Ketua Pemuda Cawangan Bendang Baru, Langkawi

The Annoying By Elections That Is Permatang Pauh

If there was ever a prize to be given for the most wasteful and pointless by-election ever in the history of modern democracy, the coming Permatang Pauh one would be a leading contender.

I'm sure by now some naive pro-Anwar lad would start getting wound up by this view of mine, but it does not mean that I am wrong. Across the nation, people are worried about the economy, crime, the state of our education system, the rights of citizens, some more equal that others, enough so that conferences, symposiums and workshops are being held nigh every weekend. But now comes a by-election and the entire effort of a nation goes into the toilet for 11 days+!

I was at a meeting last night where the organising committee of a conference planned for this weekend decided to postpone the event as a result of Permatang Pauh's nominations being held on the same day. It seems the PAS Muktamar being held that day was not as big a problem, as some Pas sympathisers would still participate in the conference, but now all the UMNO-related fellows have been asked to help at Permatang Pauh on the nomination day! WHY?

Everyone KNOWS Anwar is going to win the Permatang Pauh seat. In fact, this is such a blatant fait-accompli that it has been a task in itself to get anyone to run against Anwar Ibrahim (As an aside, the leading contender should surely be the current real PM of Malaysia, Kamaluddin Abdullah! Is he a Datuk yet? Maybe a Tan Sri?). The result is such a foregone conclusion that Anwar has been trying to show that it would be difficult for him to win... that's just so typically pathetic...

So why are all the UMNO guys so excited about Permatang Pauh? Not to stop Anwar from winning. Not even to get him a reduced majority; in fact, a reduced majority would likely be a miracle from Allah to curtail Anwar from coming to power... for any sensible person would expect a further rejection of Pak Lah to be the overwhelming signal from this by-election. Fat lot of good that would do us... Pak Lah is either too Thick Face Black Heart, or just simply too thick, to get it...

So why are all the UMNO people excited? Because this by-election will likely be the last major event before Ramadhan where all the contenders for positions in the coming UMNO AGM can line-up and show of their 'prowess' to the party power-brokers, the faithfull and potential allies in the coming race. And all at government and BN expense! Of course they're going to Permatang Pauh, not to beat Anwar, but to join in the big UMNO internal political campaign event!

And in the meantime, the rest of us concerned citizens, who want to see actual tangible results from activity... we've been waiting almost 5 years for some... are left begging! Again! This is just stupid. Politics at its worst.

"Oooh, but isn't this by-election important as it will get Anwar to Parliament? How is he going to take over government on 16 September if he is not an MP?", says the naive PKR supporter...

WOI, ANWAR WILL NOT TAKE OVER GOVERNMENT ON 16 SEPTEMBER LA! The only way he can is if a whole bunch of UMNO fellows join PKR, turning PKR into an UMNO-ciplak (+ a minority of Anwar's Indian lawyers, and Tian Chua, as MPs) AND convince PAS and DAP to join the expanded UMNO-ciplak PKR in a coalition government. And so, Nik Aziz, Hadi Awang and Lim Kit Siang are going to agree to join a coalition with an UMNO-ciplak party? NO WAY!

So, what is the point of the by-election then if Anwar isn't going to be PM, yet, anyway? Exactly... NO POINT! Waste of time and money and energy and hopes and dreams of a nation only!

And in the end, why is the by-election being held? Because the sitting MP, Wan Azizah, is fed up with politics and wants to hand the whole mess back to her husband who is the main beneficiary of her efforts and sacrifices all these years. In the end, what a stupid reason for a by-election... Ketuanan Rakyat? Rubbish...

Pak Lah Di Malukan Lagi... Tu Lah, Orang Dah Kata, Berundur Lah...

Pagi ini, Pak Lah akan dimalukan sekali lagi dengan suatu laporan baru ke Badan Pencegah Rasuah (BPR). Laporan ini akan meniliti bagaimana Pak Lah, Presiden UMNO, telah melanggar tataetika parti dan menyogok pelbagai kemewahan ke arah ahli CAWANGAN UMNO demi mempertahankan kedudukannya. Lebih buruk lagi, Pak Lah telah bersembunyi di sebalik penggunaan jentera kerajaan!

... eh, macam kes yang Anwar masuk penjara dulu aje... Anwar salah guna SB!

Orang UMNO yang memblog ada di sini, yang berkecuali di sini, tetapi lebih parah lagi, media blog utama sudah terbit di sini! Ini belum masuk laporan kat BPR pun lagi (laporan masuk katanya jam 9.30 pagi ini!).

Dan yang perit lagi untuk Pak Lah, yang melaporkan salah-laku beliau kali ini bukan calang-calang orang, tetapi Dato' Mazlan Harun, mantan Exco Pemuda UMNO, mantan ADUN dan pewaris darah Dato' Seri Harun Idris! Laporan ini juga menyusul laporan Ketua Bahagian UMNO PJ Selatan, Kept (B) Dato’ Zahar Hashim, kepada Jawatankuasa Disiplin UMNO atas salah-laku yang sama...

... Depa frust kot Jawatankuasa Disiplin UMNO tak buat apa-apa. Ya la, sejak 2004, Jawatankuasa Disiplin UMNO pun lebih bergiat untuk membunuh nyawa politik musuh Khairy atau menyelamatkan teman-temannya. Yang dihukum Jawatankuasa Disiplin UMNO pun boleh jadi Menteri!

Sebagai ahli, saya rasa penat sangat lah tengok benda ni semua. Baik Pak Lah berundur saja Lah, tak tahan nak tunggu dah! Datuk Seri Rafidah dalam 'melambai bye-bye-nya' pun dah bagi petanda, 2010 lama sangat Lah, tambah walau ada seorang pun yang nekad mencabar! Nak tunggu apa lagi?

1. Tunggu malu BPR terpaksa termangu tak endah laporan Datuk Mazlan Harun yang SAHIH?! Jadi kes-kes rasuah politik lain dalam pemilihan UMNO kali ni pun tiada makna Lah kan?


2. Nak tunggu bertambah kurang dari 28% rakyat percaya dengan kepimpinan Pak Lah ke? Kena tunggu turun sampai berapa? 20%? 10%? Kita tunggu sampai 0% Lah, amacam? Kalau macam tu sure tak perlu pergi, sebab mesti ada 3-4 orang yang mahu Pak Lah kekal... Khairy, Kamal, Kali...


3. Nak tunggu Tok Guru dedahkan ka yang PAS tak mahu Mukabalah diadakan sebab Imam Hadhari menolak hadirnya Tun Dr Mahathir sebagai pemerhati berkecuali? Dah tak cukup malu ka, PAS menolak UMNO kerana Pak Lah tertutup hati? Nak menyatu-padukan Melayu konon....


4. Nak tunggu Anwar semakin mampir ke tampuk kuasa ke? Ye lah, tau la KJ tu minat benar dengan Anwar tu, sejak universiti lagi, tapi...


5. Nak kata tunggu anak-pinak kaya raya dan berkuasa pun, dah tak perlu dah. Sampai kawan keliling pun dah kaya dan berkuasa, nak tara mana lagi?

Sudah Lah Pak Lah, berundur Lah. Hero-hero UMNO yang dulu sakan nak mencabar pun la dah akur menunggu pemergian-mu... berundur sahaja Lah. Sebelum UMNO, Melayu, Rakyat dan Negara Malaysia malunya tak tersorong ke mana pun angkara Pak Lah tak malu ingin kekal berkuasa...

Berhemah Anwar Bila Ke Permatang Pauh...

Pelbagai teori dan andaian sudah dilemparkan mengenai keputusan Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim bertanding di Permatang Pauh setelah laluan diberi oleh isteri beliau Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah. Tetapi sebenarnya semua teori dan andaian tersebut pada pendapat saya jauh dari sasaran. Keputusan tersebut adalah keputusan yang paling berhemah mungkin diambil oleh beliau dalam memilih kerusi Parlimen. Ini kerana:

1. Pengundi Permatang Pauh tetap setia kepada Anwar dan perjuangan PKR untuk membebaskannya walaupun pada PRU-11, tahun 2004, sewaktu merudumnya pembangkang. Inilah cara terbaik untuk berterima kasih kepada mereka, dengan kembalinya Anwar ke 'kampung'nya.


2. Dr Wan Azizah pula tidak pernah senang sebagi seorang ahli politik. Beliau seorang pakar kedoktoran mata terkemuka yang berpolitik semata-mata untuk menyelamatkan keluarganya. Maka semestinya Anwar, sebagai seorang suami yang baik, haruslah membalas kesetiaan dan pengorbanan isterinya dengan mengalihkan beban kepimpinan dari Wan Azizah ke bahunya sendiri dengan secepat mungkin.


3. Sekiranya Anwar bertanding di tempat lain dan menang, akan hadir 3 beranak dari keluarganya di Parlimen mewakili PKR! Maka akan timbulah pelbagai andaian yang beliau tidak lain tabiat dari kerajaan Pak Lah-KJ atau berperangai seperti parti DAP (Lim Kit Siang, Karpal Singh dan zuriat mereka). Setidak-tidaknya, PKR masih kekal 2 beranak kepimpinannya.

Tetapi ini semua seolah-olah tidak disedari apabila Anwar dikecam oleh Khairy Jamaluddin (KJ) atau Khairy al-Oxfordi. Kita boleh terima mungkin pendapat KJ yang sebab Anwar memilih demikian kerana beliau takut kalah. Sememangnya KJ sendiri memang pakar dalam hal takut kalah ini, maka pendapat beliau mungkin boleh diterima.... tetapi...

Perlu diingat yang KJ tiada kemampuan untuk membaca Anwar, bukan sahaja kerana hinggusnya masih mengaburi fikiran, tetapi kerana fasal 3 di atas mungkin tiada makna untuk beliau. Ya lah, kita pun kena faham, KJ ni dah biasa sangat dah pengalaman berkerajaan dua beranak dengan Pak Lah. Tambah pula, KJ kan Singapura di bawah kulitnya, maka beliau memang sedia menerima senario seperti di sana, di mana Lee Kuan Yew sekeluarga mengongkong semua kuasa!

Saya rasa cukuplah setakat ini saya mengulas tentang KJ. Tetapi ingin saya memberi 2 cadangan tambahan:

1. Ada baiknya Dr Wan Azizah mengembalikan gelaran Datuk Seri beliau, kerana rasanya ini tidak sesuai dianugerahkan dan memperkecilkan anugerah Datuk yang diberikan kepada Nicol David yang lebih berjasa. Akuilah akhirnya yang perjuangan Wan Azizah adalah untuk suami dan keluarganya, bukan untuk agama, bangsa mahupun tanah air. Kalau anugerah Datuk atas jasa beliau di bidang kedoktoran mata mungkin boleh...


2. Diharapkan Suruhanjaya Pilihanraya (SPR) memberi kesempatan untuk keputusan petisyen pilihanraya di Kulim diputuskan sebelum menetapkan tarikh pilihanraya kecil. Mungkin kalau petisyen tersebut berjaya, pilihanraya kecil boleh dilakukan serentak demi mengurangkan beban kos pada rakyat...